this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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please post any subsequent updates here unless they're huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don't have to be their own thread

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[–] runekn@beehaw.org 109 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (3 children)

Well that was... weird.

I saw several alleged videos of russian frontline units pledging their support for Prigozhin. Combine that with how little resistance wagner faced and Putin might have realized how weak his position is and given in to replacing MOD staff. Not a good look the same day he declared Prigozhin a traitor and promised punishment.

Trading the long-term stability for the short-term. Because now every aspiring russian warlord know that if you don't like something about the state, all you need is just a big enough private army to bully the kremlin, lol.

[–] bob@lemmy.havocperil.uk 54 points 1 year ago (2 children)

What a weird outcome. Putin now looks weak and Prigozhin looks stupid for trusting any deal that Putin could make.

[–] runekn@beehaw.org 34 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

I wonder how many russians are actually happy with this outcome. Kremlin loyalist must be depressed, since their leader basically turned into a puppet. And the extreme wagner supporters wanted it to go all the way. So both sides hardcode supporters are now depressed. Some wagner members probably just wanted putin to concede even after his speech so they may be happy. Civilians that support none may be happy that their society didn't collapse and cities turned to war zones.

Ukrainians are disappointed that the distraction didn't last a little longer, but none the less content with a weakened Russia.

[–] interolivary@beehaw.org 21 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

"Opportunity to return to Africa."

Yeah, I suppose massacring badly equipped CAR "rebels" (while also guarding their diamond mines) and civilians is a lot more fun than having to fight someone being equipped by the military-industrial complex of the combined West.

Edit: oh and related to how many Russians are happy with this, this Mastodon post had some numbers from a Russian political blogger:

A popular Russian political blogger Tatiana Stanovaya ran a poll on her Telegram earlier today, asking: “how do you feel about the current situation”

Votes:

  • 12% supporting Prigozhin
  • 48% “let them fight, there are no heroes here”
  • 29% “this is a catastrophe, I’m scared”
  • 8% against the coup
  • 3% “give power to the people”

https://t.me/stanovaya/1647

The numbers will be skewed due to the audience, but still interesting>

[–] floofloof@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 year ago

Those figures can't be at all reassuring to Putin.

[–] argv_minus_one@beehaw.org 4 points 1 year ago

This is nothing new. Politics has long involved compromise. Hardliners rarely get what they want.

[–] bob@lemmy.havocperil.uk 10 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Just had a thought, what if Putin has taken Prigozhin's family hostage and pretending to take the deal is just a play for time while they rescue them? It would be a great movie plot.

What if the Ukrainians paid Wagner to do this to cause a distraction? That would be pretty crazy too!

[–] Pyr_Pressure@lemmy.ca 13 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I mean, what would Wagner do once they reach Moscow? Sit at Putins desk and start giving orders? No one would listen, they'd all still take orders from Putin sitting in St Petersburg or just quit an go home and wait it out.

[–] SkyeStarfall@lemmy.blahaj.zone 16 points 1 year ago

I imagine they would take over the city, and completely destabilize Russia.

It doesn't matter if nobody wants to listen to you if you become the local law enforcement.

[–] buxtonwater@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 year ago

Probably just re-enact Jan 6 but Russian for the propaganda points, then skedaddling before the hammer comes down.

[–] Cannacheques 2 points 1 year ago

And soon Russia will face the same problem as Iraq and Afghanistan did

[–] techters@beehaw.org 12 points 1 year ago (3 children)

I don't know why anyone is taking any of this seriously. For all we know, this was done to lure Ukraine into following them into Russia to fall into a set trap, or theater or withdraw and resupply without looking weak. It is odd that it looks like Putin had weakness, but they can always say that's what it was later and the propaganda will work like it always does.

[–] tias@discuss.tchncs.de 23 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

Do you really think Ukraine has an interest on following them into Russia? If I was them I would just want to take back Ukraine and secure the borders.

[–] rammer@sopuli.xyz 8 points 1 year ago

They don't. But Putin in his own disinformation bubble may think so.

[–] techters@beehaw.org 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

They currently have an operation attacking into Russia's boarder...

[–] abhibeckert@beehaw.org 5 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (1 children)

Only if you accept Russia's description of where the border is. The border as defined by every other country in the entire world says Ukraine is still in their own territory.

There have been some Ukrainian sympathisers setting off bombs/shooting down aircraft/etc inside Russian territory - but those aren't Ukranian soldiers and they're pretty generally just a few random/nonconsequential attacks and don't show any signs of being linked to any "Operation". The front line of the battlefield is nowhere near the border.

[–] techters@beehaw.org 2 points 1 year ago

No, it's documented and reported by Ukraine and US as they counterattacked on Russian soil and it was an issue because of the US supplying weapons to them: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/29/an-increasing-number-of-ukrainian-attacks-on-russian-soil-are-upsetting-the-united-states-and-kyiv-s-allies_6028312_4.html

[–] maynarkh@feddit.nl 16 points 1 year ago (2 children)

It would be weird to shoot down friendly helicopters and launch cruise missiles at friendly formations just to make a big feint.

Ukraine just needs to take the land bridge to Crimea, I don't see they have any incentive to go inwards towards Russia.

[–] p03locke@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 points 1 year ago

Well, it would certainly be a massive moral blow to Russia if Ukraine just up and freed Crimea. The bigger challenge would be installing a leader that isn't going to turn around and give the country back to Putin.

[–] techters@beehaw.org 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Do we know for certain that any of that happened though? Because I haven't seen any video of actual engagement between Wagner and Russia.

[–] maynarkh@feddit.nl 1 points 1 year ago

Well, here's some footage with a shot down C&C plane. I mean it still could be not Wagner, but it would be an awful coincidence.

I mean we still don't know shit beyond the fact that Ukraine is holding strong and slowly reclaiming territory. The thing about this story is that it shows that the Russians are divided, and that's not a picture you want to show in a war, especially to your people. These events are costing the Russians dearly in one way or another.

[–] Thedogspaw@midwest.social 9 points 1 year ago

I think you watch to many movies real life isn't that well planned most likely he got mad launched an ill planned invasion then made a deal with putin when both realized they could lose everything fighting each other