this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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Meduza is currently the only major independent Russian news organisation reporting on the war in Ukraine

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[–] MrSangrief@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Does anyone know what the chances are of Wagner succeeding? Russian's military has been thinned out greatly because of the war so a concentrad attack behind the main front-lines should be effective. Assuming Wagner has access to Russian army intelligence. This Chechen warband seems like a valid thread though but they also look like the next group to try to grab power...if they crush Wagner, that would be a display of strength that could Putin in a corner as well.

[–] joelthelion@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The Hypermind prediction market currently estimates the chances of Putin losing power by the end of the year at 40%. Hypermind is usually a pretty good source, and I'd say this estimate is fairly reasonable (a bit high maybe?).

[–] roofuskit@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

So far the resistance seems pretty sparse due to people defecting or just choosing not to fight.