this post was submitted on 19 Oct 2023
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Showerthoughts
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A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. A showerthought should offer a unique perspective on an ordinary part of life.
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It is official; Netcraft now confirms: Lemmy is dying
One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered Lemmy community when IDC confirmed that Lemmy market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all servers. Coming close on the heels of a recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that Lemmy has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. Lemmy is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead last in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive networking test.
You don't need to be a Kreskin to predict Lemmy's future. The hand writing is on the wall: Lemmy faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for Lemmy because Lemmy is dying. Things are looking very bad for Lemmy. As many of us are already aware, Lemmy continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.
FreeLemmy is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time FreeLemmy developers Hurka Durr and Tum Tatee only serve to underscore the point more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: FreeLemmy is dying.
Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.
OpenLemmy leader Herp states that there are 7000 users of OpenLemmy. How many users of NetLemmy are there? Let's see. The number of OpenLemmy versus NetLemmy shitposts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore there are about 7000/5 = 1400 NetLemmy users. Lemmy/OS shitposts on Usenet are about half of the volume of NetLemmy shitposts. Therefore there are about 700 users of Lemmy/OS. A recent article put FreeLemmy at about 80 percent of the Lemmy market. Therefore there are (7000+1400+700)4 = 36400 FreeLemmy users. This is consistent with the number of FreeLemmy shitposts.
Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on, FreeLemmy went out of business and was taken over by LemmyI who sell another troubled OS. Now LemmyI is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.
All major surveys show that Lemmy has steadily declined in market share. Lemmy is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If Lemmy is to survive at all it will be among OS dilettante dabblers. Lemmy continues to decay. Nothing short of a cockeyed miracle could save Lemmy from its fate at this point in time. For all practical purposes, Lemmy is dead.
Fact: Lemmy is dying