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this post was submitted on 29 Sep 2022
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Tanking European economy and condemning millions of people to horrific conditions this winter does absolutely nothing to help Ukraine. Russia is making record profits from energy exports today.
The rise in energy prices more than made up for any lost sales to Europe. Also, Russia is still exporting lots of gas to Europe via China, India, and Saudi Arabia. The only difference is that these countries now charge Europe a markup.
Also, Russia has pipelines to China and building more pipelines as we speak.
You have absolutely no clue regarding the subject you're attempting to debate.
It quite obviously will. China's industry is growing along with BRI. All the industry that's moving out of Europe will go to Asia and use Russian gas. Again, this isn't rocket science and it's amazing that people don't get this. The articles you linked are written for gullible people who don't understand how economy or energy markets work globally.
Literally zero evidence for the claim that western industry leaving Russia has any negative impact. All it does is create room domestic industry and companies from friendly countries like China and India. If sanctions failed to produce any effect initially, it's obvious they will only have less effect going forward.
Hope you now have a better understanding of the errors in your sources.
What part of Russia is building new pipelines to China are you struggling with?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
LMAO pretty telling how all the numbers are from May, weird how it fails to mention that inflation has been dropping rapidly in Russia, and prices for necessities have been falling
This is precisely my point regarding sanctions. They create an initial shock and then the economy adjusts. There is no instance I'm aware of where western sanctions led to regime change that I'm aware of. Venezuela, DPRK, and Iran are all small countries managing to cope with western sanctions. It's absolute idiocy to think Russia would not.
Meanwhile, what really matters is the relative economic shock to Russia and the west. Right now the economy in the west is doing far war than in Russia. The obvious reason being that Russia is secure for food, energy, and manufacturing while the west is not.
Proposed pipelines are meant to move similar numbers that were going to Europe. The cost of the project is obviously worth it for both Russia and China given that they're currently doing this project. Have no idea what western sanctions have to do with any of that. If you think that Russia and China aren't capable of building pipelines on their own you're delusional.
Literally the opposite of what I'm doing. I've explained to you the actual mechanics behind the situation.
Zero evidence to support your assertions about any brain drain happening. Meanwhile, Russia will obviously be in a better place with domestic industry that circulates back into its own economy.
Weirdly it's not taking time for the effects to show in Europe. Wonder what things will look like by spring.
No evidence to support the assertion that Russia gives false data and estimations.
Economy adjusts when you have things like food and energy secured. Europe does not, and the adjustment will be to starvation and deindustrialization.
Please name what essential goods Russia is trying to get from other countries. Also, please name what goods Russia actually has trouble sourcing.
The fact that you use this as a source explains a lot about your views on the subject.
As you can see, Russia is making record profits at current levels of exports, and once the pipeline is finished it will be doing more exports. The demand for gas isn't going away any time soon, and after 6 months, it's crystal clear that there is no way to replace Russian gas on the global market. I realize the concept of supply and demand is daunting for some people.
I see that you're once again back to having trouble understanding that Russia can turn off the tap at the source. Russia is not required to sell gas to Europe, they can choose whom they do business with. Russia having cut gas in Nord Stream 1 pipelines clearly demonstrated this concept already. Anybody who thinks that Russia needs to blow up it's own pipelines assumes that people whom they're trying to convince are imbeciles.
I asked you to be specific here, but you just keep repeating nonsense that you made up.
No, we're literally comparing the same thing. The west cut trade with Russia and now western economies are tanking due to lack of commodities from Russia, while Russian economy is doing just fine without western trinkets.
Russia publishes plenty of data, anybody who knows how to use google can look it up. I'm guessing you're not in the set of people who understand how google works.
Yes, Russia is going to depend on China for a lot of these things the same way the rest of the world is. You evidently don't seem to understand where most of global manufacturing happens.
Oh you mean like the rouble that's the only currency that continues to strengthen agains the dollar? 😂
No, all previous exports will be made to friendly countries which constitute the majority of world's population. Go read up on BRICS which Russia is a central member of.
China is a big winner from all this to be sure, and I'm personally very happy about that. I think China is a far better run country than Russia, and I'd much rather see China lead the world than western parasites. Russia is paving the way for that.
In short, demand for Russian energy exports isn't going anywhere. You're also making a baseless claim that Russia will not be making more pipelines to the east in the future. Pakistan already asked Russia for a pipeline just last month for example. With manufacturing moving out of Europe, the demand for energy in Asia will grow proportionally, and that energy has the same source.
Your whole premise is nonsense, yet you keep doubling down on it. It's absolutely amazing that you can't understand supply and demand mechanics.
Ah, so you're finally admitting that Europe is more dependent on Russia than the other way around. And following this basic logic it becomes obvious that the longer the trade war goes the worse off Europe will be economically relative to Russia.
Russia releases stats about the economy regularly, which include price increases, wages, and so on.
Meanwhile, you just make stuff up as usual. For example, sanctions on plane spare parts were lifted back in August. So, yeah I don't see made up stats from Russia.
Huh, Russia exchanges roubles for all kinds currencies with yuan and rupees being two key ones. There's a whole new financial system forming outside of SWIFT right now. The amount of ignorance on display here is just stunning.
That's what makes the price go up. Let me try using small words you might be able to understand. Less supply means higher price. If Russia can't deliver as much gas it was previously, then the price for the available gas surges because there isn't enough to meet demand. This is why Russia is making more profit while selling less gas right now. Since demand is high, that means Russia will keep building more pipelines east and increase volumes of sales to meet demand.
You literally just admitted that the economy in Europe is collapsing because essential commodities from Russia have been cut off. Meanwhile, nothing essential in Russia is missing. This is why the effect on Europe is so much more profound.
Seems like aren't aware of great many things.
It's pretty hilarious that you think these are the only currencies worth considering, given that all the industry and manufacturing is in Asia. You seems to be under the delusion that 15% of world's population in the west is still the most important part of the planet. It's not.
And I'm going to repeat once again that cost is driven by demand, and there is no reason for demand to drop. The sanctions have had no effect because only western countries are participating. All the sanctions do is increase price of energy in Europe because Europe is now buying Russian gas through third parties.
I would not call that profound effect because there is no evidence to support the idea that this had any profound impact on life in Russia. We see profound impact on life in Europe however. Also, you may not realize this but western companies losing business in a country of 150 million also hurts western companies. Any damage done to Russia by this process is symmetrically reflected on the west.
No I don't. I simply don't think Europe and North America matter to Russia as trade partners in the grand scheme of things. Russia has plenty of trade partners without the west. Meanwhile, the west has not been able to secure alternatives to Russian commodities. Your chauvinism clouds your judgment. 🤣
Which makes the cost go up! In fact, you'll be seeing this soon personally when your country is going to be running out of essentials this winter. Perhaps personal experience will help you understand how supply and demand works.
Sure we can, inflation numbers for Europe just came out and it's double digit inflation all across Eurozone https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14698140/2-30092022-AP-EN.pdf/727d4958-dd57-de9f-9965-99562e1286bf?t=1664464564725
We're not even in winter yet. Most analysts didn't expect things to get this bad until at least February. This is also a self reinforcing effect. As people see European economy crash they pull their capital out of Europe, and this causes others to pull their capital out too. Nobody wants to be left holding the bag when the crash happens.
I'm literally discussing the same topic here. Costs for energy go up when the supply cannot meet demand. Once again, this is why Russia is currently making record profits while selling less gas. I've literally linked you pipelines Russia currently building to replace Europe. You just made a baseless assertion that they won't keep doing more of that going forward.
Inflation in Russia has been falling, and it's now down to 7.5% already.
Nice pivot there to a made up story. But even if we took this story at face value it doesn't support your point since it says Russia is EXPORTING grain from Ukraine. If they weren't self sufficient in food then they'd be using it themselves. It's amazing that this sort of thing needs to be explained.
The manufacturing that's moving there from Europe right now.
No, I didn't pick the wrong number. The inflation was at 15% peak, and has been coming down since.
Well going with the narrative of the article it's to sell it for profit. Did you read the article you linked? 😂
Not sure what part of Russia can build as many pipelines as they need you're struggling with here. Meanwhile, in the short term Russia is making money hand over fist, so not like they're hurting in the short term either.
No, I'm not. I'm talking about month by month inflation. Here's another breakdown for you https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/russia/news/inflation/inflation-comes-in-at-highest-level-since-february-2016-in-october-0
Consumer prices are staying pretty stable. How does that compare with Europe again?
I literally said inflation is down to 7.5%:
I'm sorry I didn't realize you're unable to comprehend that inflation being down to 7.5% implies there is change over time in inflation.
And of course, we don't have to talk about annual rates. We can clearly talk about the change in inflation over past 6 months. Change in Russia has been that inflation is dropping and prices are stable. The change in Europe has been the opposite. These are basic facts of the situation.
Are inflation and cost of living rate in Europe going up or down right now?
Yeah, that's sort of the elephant in the room. The west has been printing money like no tomorrow each time there has been a risk of a recession. This goes back at least all the way to the Y2K crisis. They've been basically externalizing the problem into the future all this time. Then the pandemic hit and the economic war and all of a sudden printing money doesn't solve the problem anymore and they don't know what to do.
Meanwhile, Russia's been shoring up its economy since 2014 and carefully weaning itself away from the west this whole time so it would be able to survive decoupling. I can guarantee that China's been doing the same, and these will be the rising economies as western financial system spirals out of control next year.
we'll see soon enough
Nobody said Russia doesn't have problems, what I keep explaining to you is that Russia is much better off relative to Europe. I get that basic facts like food and energy security are really hard for you to wrap your head around.
LMFAO look at you a certified expert on where money goes in Russian economy. 😂
How to say you've never seen a map in your entire life without saying you've never seen a map in your entire life. 😂