this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2023
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No one will really be able to answer that until Starship has commercial pricing. In the meantime, all we have is stray interviews and tweets from "the founder" about the engines being <$1m and the total investment being $2-3b so far, plus another $2b this year. They really need to start flying any payloads before I feel good about it, though.
For Falcon, NASA said years ago that it would have cost them at least an extra $1.5b to develop in-house, and we can see that the commercial pricing and cost/kg beats the rest of the market.