this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2023
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Yes, you are right, I should have formulated that better.
I would expect that there would be a few big instances. What I should have said is having only a few big instances and no small instances would be a failure. It would be totally acceptable to have a few big instances and lots of smaller instances that can still interact with the fediverse. The failure would be if you have something like 20 very big instances that only interact with each other and that are inaccessible to the small instances - either because they close their federation, or because it is too resource-intensive for small instances to interact with them. In this case you end up with a centralized system again, not better and potentially worse than something like Reddit. As long as someone can spin-up their own instance if they want to and be part of the larger ecosystem, it would be a success.