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Considering last night's results, I don't expect NATO to be credible 4 years from now
(sh.itjust.works)
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It took two nukes for Japan to wave the white flag. Do we really need 5,000+ nukes for anything? France has 290 and UK has 225. Thats enough to wipe one or multiple countries clean off of the map without any form of surrender.
Yes, antimissile systems will shoot down most of your missile volley, so you need to launch enough that they become overwhelmed and the few that make it through accomplish your goal.
We don't know exactly how much "most" is, but its enough that the powers that be consider our current level of armament to be necessary.
Will the ones shit down rain down radioactive dust everywhere?
Yes, but to a way lesser degree.
The bombs become really nasty by creating a big chain reaction (boom) and then radiating the dust the explosion creates (aftermath) which then spreads everywhere.
Without a controlled explosion there will be significantly less radiating reactions and radioactive dust.
It's like deep inhaling the smoke of a package of burning fire starters VS throwing said burning fire starter into a warehouse full of fireworks (and for the sake of this argument you cant leave the warehouse and have no equipment whatsoever)
Both will probably fuck you up a bit if you're to close, but one is comparably insignificant.