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I'd like to believe that the only reason 2020 got so ratfucked in the first place was that Trump was intentionally not putting the screws on anybody to do their jobs.
A second Jan 6th won't happen, at least not this year. A MAGA mob will show up at the capitol and be met by a fully prepared and well armed national guard, because Biden is the commander in chief and he's going to take threats like that seriously.
If the house declines to elect a speaker, Biden could in theory put pressure on them to pick one. The constitutional crisis can swing both directions - yes the Republicans will likely try to avoid certification, but then Biden could threaten to not step down unless the certification happens, or hand over the reigns to VP Harris anyway by resigning. I don't see it working in their favor to try something like not certifying or not electing a speaker, because they don't have the luxury of Trump in the white house to look the other way at their bad behavior.
It's quite apparent that the plan in 2020 was to organize these fake electors, who did everything the process called for except actually be certified by the states, and send their phony credentials into Congress so Pence could recognize them. When Pence didn't go along, their plan pivoted to creating enough chaos at the Capitol to stop the certification altogether. Both plans failed because Pence wouldn't go along.
This time, they can't plan on anyone in the Executive Branch to go along. So their plan must be either to make the House dysfunctional so it cannot act to certify, or pressure states to ignore their laws and certify for Trump.
I am constantly amazed how far Trumpiats will go to maintain power -- and how their voters reward them for it.