this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Well that's disheartening. Can't believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.
I wouldn't rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people's beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth..
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there's a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.