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What's your prediction for the 2024 US election? (lemmy.world)

submitted 1 month ago by return2ozma@lemmy.world to c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml

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Who's winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc

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[–] johannesvanderwhales@lemmy.world 6 points 4 weeks ago (2 children)

Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.

[–] abbenm@lemmy.ml 1 points 4 weeks ago

I wouldn't rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people's beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth..

NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there's a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.

[–] dessalines@lemmy.ml -1 points 4 weeks ago

This page has some background, but historically they've always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they've been around.