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A full sweep. I don't know if it's possible this election (i.e. who is running) but the numbers need to change to enable progress.
The game is tough for Democrats, I don't think this gets nearly enough attention, but pretty much they have to win all the close races, and flip a couple more. Current Projections show 48(D+I)/2(Tossup)/50(R).
The longshot potential flips are:
About 20%, 30% chance according to TheHill. A lot of work will be needed to unseat those GOP powerhouses.
Democratic held seats that have various likelihood to flip to Republican are:
A lot more work will also be needed to keep all these seats. And young people are going to have to look to the bigger picture, show up in droves if they want to prove any poll wrong.
Definitely a real possibility, but tight in the senate
The senate is likely to come down to: can Dems either maintain John Tester in Montana or flip Florida or Texas
There's also the funky possibility that Dan Osborn wins as an independent in Nebraska and overturns a deep red seat. Limited polls put him neck and neck. There's no dem in that race and Osborn has distanced himself from all parties. He said he'd likely try not to caucus with anyone, but if it didn't work out he'd caucus with whoever aligns better with his goals. He's very pro-union (he lead Kellog's strike in 2021), pro-right to repair, pro-legal weed, against corporate ballouts, against a national abortion ban, but appears a bit more conservative on immigration, so make of that what you will