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this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2024
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I'd definitely recommend watching Anders analysis if you haven't taken a look. Seems like a risky but potentially fantastic move from Ukraine depending on what exactly their objectives are.
Will be watching closely, looks like it's going to be an interesting few days to see Russia scramble to get the egg off their face with this at the very least.
Is the aim to divert resources from the front lines in UA? Because that's what this smells like.
Seems like that's probably part of it. It could also be a response to the Russian offensives slowing down. Ukraine's strategy so far seems to have been to stay on the defensive, preserve troops and bleed the Russian forces as much as possible as they advance. If Russia stops advancing, this strategy no longer works. Now that Ukraine has taken a seemingly significant area inside Russia itself, it means Russia is forced to keep playing an offensive role to bring this territory back under Russian control and Ukraine can continue with their strategy.
I'm no military analyst and I'm mostly just paraphrasing what Anders said but it seems reasonable. They seem to be playing their cards pretty close to the chest right now though as to what their actual objective is.
They just captured a major gas substation that means less revenue for Mordor as well.
Break supply lines.
Probably both. Divert pressure off the front. Disrupt supply lines and infrastructure (roads, bridges and railroads). I've also heard mention that one axis of advance is towards a nuclear plant.
I've seen some keyboard warriors theorize that the Ukrainians intend to capture the plant as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russian because Russia currently holds a Ukrainian nuclear power plant. My (wild ass) guess is that if they make it to the plant, they will just destroy its ability to generate power, then retreat.
Need to threaten Kursk to really push the supply lines.