this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2023
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Bro service industry jobs and similar are booming. Train under a plumber, electrician or gassist and you will be set for years
Go where the future is...HVAC. Soon everyone is going to need AC just to survive.
Which will accelerate the destruction of the planet. Yay!
Whether you have ac or not, the planet is set on course to be destroyed unless big oil countries suddenly find their kindness to all mankind and stop drilling oil. Which is impossible.
I'm aware of that, hence why I said accelerate
Maybe. But if they stop drilling for petroleum, I wonder where the electricity to make the solar panels and wind turbines will come from. Oh and the polymers and plastics used to make those things. While ue use the available electricity for charging our electric cars.
What's the alternative? Just die?
Yup
Pumping all my fun money into trane stock....
Where I'm from even those jobs pay shitty salaries that haven't kept up with the cost of living. I know electricians who can barely afford rent.
Ok fair enough. Where is that? Most of the world has less than enough people for those service jobs so unless you live just in the right place or the planet where almost everyone is a plumber, I'd call that extreme bad luck haha
Oh we definitely don't have enough tradespeople, but their unions have not kept them up to the cost of living. It's causing a huge problem here. The only way to make real money is to start your own business, and most people aren't interested in that or can't afford to.
But that's exactly what I meant can't you go independent? That's weird, tradesmanship here even has unions but they have so much work they can't handle the load ( ayyy lmao) and they are trying to stimulate people to take into this trades.
Suggesting an alternative industry as an escape from AI doesn't work. The media tried this with the millions of truck drivers, pushing them to go into software development 5-10 years ago, as we started conversations around the impending automation of their careers.
The thought at the time, and this seemed like an accurate forecast to me, was that the tech industry would continue to grow and software engineers would be extraordinarily safe for decades to come. I was already in this profession, so I figured my career was safe for a long while.
Then a massive AI boom happened this year that I hadn't anticipated would come for 15ish more years, and similarly AI experts are now pushing up predictions of AGI by literally decades, average estimates being under 10 years now instead of 30 years.
At the same time, the tech industry went through massive layoffs. Outsourcing, massive increases in output with generative AI automating away repetitive copy/paste programming or even slightly more complicated boilerplate that isn't strictly copy/paste, amongst natural capitalist tendencies to want to restrict high value labor to keep it cheap.
Those people who shifted away from truck driving and towards software engineer 4+ years ago, thinking it was a "safe path" and now being told that it's impossible to find a junior dev position might become desperate enough to change paths again. Maybe they'll take your advice and join a trade school, only to find in 4 years we'll hit massive advancements in robotics and AGI that allows general problem solving skills from robots in the real world.
We already have the tech for it. Boston dynamics has showcased robots that can move more than fluently enough to be a plumber, electrician, etc. Now we just need to combine generative AI with senses and the ability to process information from those senses and react (this already works with images, moving to a video feed and eventually touch/sound/etc is a next step).
While everyone constantly plays a game of chicken, trying to move around this massive reserve army of labor, we'll see housing scalpers continue to raise rents, and cost of living becoming prohibitive for this growing class of underemployed or unemployed people. The reserve army of labor, when kept around 5-10% of the population, serves as an incentive for people to be obedient workers and not to rock the bed too much. That number growing to 20-50% is enough to rock the bed, and capitalists will advocate for what they've already advocated in the third world, a massive reduction or total annihilation of welfare, so millions more can starve to death.
We already have millions of people dying a year due to starvation, and nearly a billion people are malnourished due to lack of food access. Raising this number is a logical next step for capitalists as workers try to fight for a share of the automated economy.
“Just” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Sensor integration is currently the biggest hurdle in AI and one of the most complex but less understood areas of research. Everyone can make a magnetic sensor, anyone can make an image recognition AI, anyone can make an inverse kinematic robotic control arm. But having them integrate and coordinate together to create fluid problem analysis and motion has proven to be elusive and non-trivial. Tesla commits traffic offenses, taxi networks are brought to a halt by shirts with traffic cones on them. For things the most basic human context aware analysis can solve instantly. It has cost Boston Dynamics billions of defense budget money to create a partial solution that still requires the permanent supervision of a human operator. A full solution is not on the table in the short-term.
Not gonna read all that but alternative industries will happen ai or not.
The necessity to look for an alternative industry will happen ai or not.
And it's not impossible to find junior tech positions what the hell are you talking about.
Also there is not a conspiracy to reduce the planetary population. And if you claim that I want proof.
If you're not going to spend the 60 seconds it takes to read my comment, don't bother responding. Nobody mentioned a conspiracy to cull the population, the millions of people who are dying a year from hunger or entirely curable diseases like TB aren't dying because of some deep state conspiracy, they're dying because it's what's logical in a capitalist economy. These people have no economic power, so they get no resources.
Similarly, as the economy gets further automated, workers lose economic power, and we'll be treated with the same capitalist logic that anyone else in the world is treated with, once we have no economic power we are better off dead, and so that's what will happen.
The position that "alternative industries will always exist" is pretty foolish, humans aren't some exceptional supreme beings that can do something special artificial beings cannot. Maybe you're religious and believe in a soul, and you think that soul gives you some special powers that robots will never have, but you'd be simply mistaken.
Once the entire economy is automated, there will still be two classes, owners and non-owners, instead of owners and workers. Non-owners will either seize the means of production or die per the logic of capitalism (not some conspiracy).