Microblog Memes

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submitted 4 months ago by spaduf to c/microblogmemes@lemmy.world

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[–] EnderWiggin@lemmy.world 11 points 4 months ago (1 children)

at 60% to win the election

LOL what? There is barely any polling out on Harris v. Trump, and the one's that have circulated are a dead heat at +/-2 in either direction. I'm personally waiting on Nate Silver's first real forecast tomorrow.

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works -2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (3 children)

His odds are about the same as Polymarket's.

(Sorry Nate, I know this is paywalled but winning an argument is more important than your livelihood.)

[–] todd_bonzalez@lemm.ee 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I think you're confused, Nate Silver is famously one of the worst political analysts, and is openly ridiculed for saying stupid shit like you are while making bad calls. Not surprising that you didn't understand that "as reliable as Nate Silver" was an insult.

Wherever you get your polling data from doesn't matter because polls don't actually matter. You're just a wonk who thinks getting polling data from illegal gambling operations makes you special.

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Ok, then who do you propose is better at predicting election results?

[–] rekorse@lemmy.world 2 points 4 months ago

Nobody is good at it. They shouldnt be used to predict who will win.

[–] EnderWiggin@lemmy.world 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

How's that looking now?

[–] ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

I think the original predictions were accurate given the information available at the time, but Harris has been unexpectedly successful. I am pleasant surprised.

[–] EnderWiggin@lemmy.world 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Hey fair enough. That's pretty shocking. Looks like I'm throwing some money down on this one. I think these odds are insane, and I'll gladly take them.

Edit: So far that money is looking well spent. As expected, the odds have completely flipped.