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In the first half of 2024, Russia's federal statistics agency, Rosstat, reported 13.3 million people living in poverty across the country. Although this is an increase from 2023, it drastically underestimates the actual scale of poverty.

For years, the Russian government has manipulated statistics, with Rosstat revising its methods to meet presidential mandates aimed at lowering poverty rates.

However, evaluating current data by using the previous methodology reveals a much grimmer picture: by the end of 2023, the number of poor people in Russia was 1.5 times higher than officially acknowledged — ranging from 14.6 to 18 million (up to 12.5% of the population), according to The Insider. Many of those classified as “not poor” struggle to afford basic necessities like clothing and food. Poverty levels surged after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and despite enormous government spending, the situation has yet to return to pre-war levels.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4989993

A British man admitted on Friday that he carried out an arson attack on a London commercial property linked to Ukraine, and that he had accepted pay from a foreign intelligence agency, in a case prosecutors have linked to Russia.

Jake Reeves, 22, pleaded guilty at London's Woolwich Crown Court to charges of aggravated arson on the premises belonging to a "Mr X" on an industrial estate in east London in March.

He also admitted a charge under Britain's new National Security Act (NSA) of obtaining a material benefit from a foreign intelligence service.

He denied a further charge under the NSA of engaging in preparations for an act endangering the life of a person or creating serious risk to the health or safety of the public, and prosecutors said they would not pursue that charge.

Last month another man, Dylan Earl, 20, also admitted carrying out the arson attack. He pleaded guilty to a preparatory act under the NSA, which was brought in last year to crack down on hostile activity by foreign states.

Archived version

Two high-profile mass killings and a car crash at a primary school in just over a week are raising questions about how well-equipped China is to deal with the stresses of a slowing economy and related mental-health issues.

Since November 11, the country has reeled from news of a driver reportedly angry at his divorce settlement killing 35 people by ramming his car into a crowd in Zhuhai; a former student on a stabbing rampage at a vocational college in Wuxi, killing eight; and a car ploughing into a crowd of school children and pedestrians in the city of Changde on Tuesday.

[...]

The events have led to a spike in worries about the overall health of society in China, where mass casualty attacks have occurred with alarming regularity throughout 2024. There have been nine so far this year, compared with six in total in the preceding decade.

[...]

As the economy slows, employment opportunities are more precarious and fewer people are being lifted by China’s long-running economic miracle. The repercussions on mental health from such economic pressures are growing, experts say.

[...]

Xiaojie Qin, a Beijing-based psychotherapist and director at mental health non-profit CandleX, says that a pervasive sense of societal unfairness and disparity can lead in extreme cases to violence against random bystanders.

“Some people who were left behind and socially and economically more marginalised can feel they are not being treated fairly, and some people who don’t have enough emotional regulation, they have outbursts, sometimes violent outbursts,” she said.

[...]

The widespread censorship of discussion around the attacks has also appeared to heighten concerns as more people question the veracity of information they are receiving from official sources, analysts said.

“It can exacerbate societal fears and distrust of the government within China, particularly if seemingly random, large-scale violent incidents persist as they have this year,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

[...]

"The lack of access to mental health services is one reason disaffected people resort to violence, but the lack of an independent legal system that protects individuals’ rights over the interests of the party or government results in a lack of trust and faith in the courts,” said Drew Thompson [a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore].

[...]

The former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and some of his closest allies are among dozens of people formally accused by federal police of being part of a criminal conspiracy designed to obliterate Brazil’s democratic system through a rightwing coup d’état.

Federal police confirmed on Thursday that investigators had concluded their long-running investigation into what they called a coordinated attempt to “violently dismantle the constitutional state”.

In a statement, police said the report – which has been forwarded to the supreme court – formally accused a total of 37 people of crimes including involvement in an attempted coup, the formation of a criminal organization, and trying to tear down one of the world’s largest democracies.

The accused include Bolsonaro, a disgraced army captain turned populist politician, who was president from 2018 until the end of 2022, as well as some of the most important members of his far-right administration.

They included Bolsonaro’s former spy chief, the far-right congressman Alexandre Ramagem; the former defense ministers Gen Walter Braga Netto and Gen Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira; the former minister of justice and public security Anderson Torres; the former minister of institutional security Gen Augusto Heleno; the former navy commander Adm Almir Garnier Santos; the president of Bolsonaro’s political party, Valdemar Costa Neto; and Filipe Martins, one of Bolsonaro’s top foreign policy advisers.

Also named is the rightwing blogger grandson of Gen João Baptista Figueiredo, one of the military rulers who governed Brazil during its 1964-85 dictatorship.

The list contains one non-Brazilian name: that of Fernando Cerimedo, an Argentinian digital marketing guru who was in charge of communications for Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, during that country’s 2023 presidential campaign. Buenos Aires-based Cerimedo is close to Bolsonaro and his politician sons.

The long-awaited conclusion of the police investigation comes just days after federal police officers made five arrests as part of a roundup of alleged members of a plot to assassinate Bolsonaro’s leftwing successor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his centre-right vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin, as well as the supreme court judge Alexandre de Moraes.

Shortly before police announced the end of their inquiry, Lula voiced gratitude that the attempt to poison him had failed. “I’m alive,” the 79-year-old leftist said during a speech.

Gen Mario Fernandes, one of the five people arrested over the alleged “Green and Yellow Dagger” assassination plan, was also among the 37 people named by federal police on Thursday – and like the others was formally accused of being part of a criminal coup attempt. “We are at war,” Fernandes allegedly said in one message discovered by police investigators.

Bolsonaro has previously denied involvement in an attempt to overturn the result of the 2022 election, which he lost to Lula. Speaking to a journalist from the Brazilian news site Metrópoles after he was named in the police report, the former president said he needed to see what was in the investigation. “I’m going to wait for the lawyer,” Bolsonaro added.

Braga Netto, Heleno and other prominent names on the list made no immediate comment about the accusations in the federal police report, which the police statement said was based on a large trove of evidence gathered through plea deals, searches and the analysis of financial, internet and phone records. But prominent pro-Bolsonaro politicians criticized the report, with Rogério Marinho, the leader of the opposition in the senate, attributing it to the “incessant persecution” targeting Brazil’s right. “The more they persecute Bolsonaro, the stronger he gets,” tweeted Sóstenes Cavalcante, a Bolsonarista congressman from Rio.

The alleged pro-Bolsonaro coup attempt allegedly played out during the turbulent final days of his four-year administration, which came to an end when he was narrowly defeated by Lula in the second round of the 2022 presidential election.

In the lead-up to that crunch vote, a manifesto signed by almost a million citizens warned that Brazilian democracy was facing a moment of “immense danger to democratic normality” amid widespread suspicion that plans were afoot to help Bolsonaro cling to power even if he lost.

After losing his re-election bid, Bolsonaro flew into temporary exile in the US while thousands of supporters gathered outside military bases around Brazil to demand a military intervention that never came.

The failed attempt to overturn Lula’s victory culminated in the 8 January 2023 riots in the capital, Brasília, when radicalized Bolsonaristas rampaged through the presidential palace, congress and supreme court.

Nearly two years later, Lula is in power but the far-right threat to his administration remains. Last Wednesday night, a member of Bolsonaro’s political party was killed after apparently blowing himself up with homemade explosives while attacking the supreme court.

During a search of the man’s trailer, police reportedly found a cap emblazoned with the slogan of Bolsonaro’s far-right movement: “Brazil above everything. God above all.”

​In a video statement, Paulo Pimenta, Lula’s communications minister, said the government was “utterly perplexed and outraged” by the revelations that the former president and members of the military had allegedly been plotting to bring down Brazil’s democracy “with almost unbelievable audacity”.

“These are very grave crimes [and] very serious accusations,” added Pimenta, who said Lula’s administration would now wait for the public prosecutor’s office to decide which of the 37 would be prosecuted and put on trial. Those convicted would have to pay for the crimes they had committed against democracy, against the constitution and against the Brazilian people, said Pimenta. “Bolsonaro in Jail”, the minister wrote alongside his video, echoing a call from many progressive Brazilians.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4978690

Archived link

A 27 percent year-on-year increase in dissent events. CDM logged 937 dissent events in the third quarter of 2024, a 27 percent increase over the same period in 2023. The majority of these protests are led by workers (41 percent), property owners (28 percent), and rural residents (12 percent), with the remainder driven by diverse groups such as parents, students, investors, consumers, members of religious or ethnic minority groups, and activists.

The top regions for protest events were Guangdong (18 percent), followed by Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, and Zhejiang. CDM has logged a total of 7,377 cases of dissent since data collection began in June 2022.

• Citizens fighting for autonomy in their communities. This issue analyzes 174 cases of homeowners pushing back against perceived abuses and overreach by property management companies. When homeowners have attempted to democratically form owners’ committees to take back powers that were seized by the management companies, they have been met with obstruction or other repression by the company or local government. These tensions have been exacerbated by the government increasingly treating property managers as the first line of social management.
• Dissenting through xinfang. Citizens often use xinfang, or petitioning, a complaint channel encouraged by the government, to carry out collective action or other contentious forms of dissent. This report explores the trends underlying 182 such cases, at least half of which led to some form of repression.
• Rise in frequency of consumer and investor protests. CDM has documented a rise in protests over recent months by consumers and investors amidst a sluggish economy. Despite the grievances originating with the conduct of private companies, nearly 40 percent of these protests demand government intervention.

[Edit typo.]

Judges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) have issued arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister and former defence minister, as well as Hamas's military commander.

A statement said a pre-trial chamber had rejected Israel’s challenges to the court’s jurisdiction and issued warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.

A warrant was also issued for Mohammed Deif, although the Israeli military has said he was killed in an air strike in Gaza in July.

The judges said there were “reasonable grounds” the three men bore "criminal responsibility" for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the war between Israel and Hamas. Both Israel and Hamas have rejected the allegations.

It will now be up to the ICC's 124 member states - who do not include Israel or its ally, the United States - to decide whether or not to enforce the warrants.

In May, the ICC prosecutor Karim Khan sought warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, Deif and two other Hamas leaders who have since been killed, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar. Although Israel believes Deif has also been killed, the chamber said it was not able to confirm his death.

A banana duct-taped to a white wall — or an acclaimed piece of art, depending how you look at it — sold at a Sotheby's auction for $6.24 million Wednesday.

Maurizio Cattelan's "Comedian" is simply a banana stuck to the wall with a strip of silver duct tape exactly 160 centimeters from the floor.

The artwork debuted at Art Basel Miami Beach in December 2019 and was initially estimated to sell for $1.5 million, according to Sotheby's.

Art Basel quickly had to take the banana off the wall because of the crowds it drew, as it was prompting concern for the other featured artworks, art critic Nancy Durrant said in a Sotheby's video about the piece of art.

It was the first art fair Cattelan was included in for 15 years, and it was the "announcement as a new original work by Maurizio Cattelan that captured the world's attention immediately," said David Galperin, Sotheby’s head of contemporary art for the Americas.

At one point, someone even took the banana off the wall and ate it.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4948287

A Hong Kong court harshly sentenced 45 prominent pro-democracy figures on November 19, 2024, on baseless national security charges that underscored Hong Kong’s abysmal human rights situation, Human Rights Watch said today. The Hong Kong government should quash the convictions and immediately release all of those convicted.

Three judges handpicked by Hong Kong’s chief executive sentenced 37 men and 8 women to prison terms ranging from 4 years and 2 months to 10 years. The defendants were earlier convicted of “conspiracy to commit subversion” under article 22 of the National Security Law for helping to organize or run as candidates in an informal primary election in 2020 aimed at winning seats in the then-semi-democratic Legislative Council.

“It’s now a crime carrying up to 10 years in prison to try and run in and win an election in Hong Kong,” said Maya Wang, associate China director at Human Rights Watch. “The cruel sentences for dozens of prominent democracy activists show just how fast Hong Kong’s civil liberties and the rule of law have nosedived in the four years since the Chinese government imposed the draconian National Security Law on the city.”

[Edit typo.]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4918199

Archived link

Swedish authorities say they have detected a Chinese ship moving near two telecoms cables that failed within hours of each other on the Baltic Sea bed in recent days.

Prosecutors in Stockholm have launched a preliminary investigation into suspected sabotage, hours after Germany dubbed the cable failure part of a “hybrid operation”.

On Sunday morning at about 10am, Swedish authorities registered problems with a data cable under the Baltic Sea from the Öland island to Lithuania. At 4am on Monday, telecoms operators in Finland and Germany reported problems with another cable called C-Lion-1.

Both cables were damaged in the Swedish economic zone, prompting prosecutors in Stockholm to take the investigation lead.

It's been a long time coming, but at least with it's final act it'll help bring new life.

In accordance with the rules of news, I have updated the headline to reflect the headline on the website.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4917821

The Czech secret service has blamed Russia for a series of bomb threats against schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, placing more pressure on already strained ties between Prague and Moscow.

Hundreds of Czech and Slovak schools were forced to close for several days in early September due to unprecedented bomb threats via email, according to local media. Nothing came of the threats and no evidence of explosives was found near the schools.

The head of the Czech Republic's secret service, Michal Koudelka, warned the country's parliament on Monday about cyber attacks against Czech entities.

"For example, the threatening emails in September about the placement of explosives targeting a number of schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, behind which there is also a clearly visible Russian trace," Koudelka said.

"We are witnessing a kind of globalisation of evil, where the countries of the axis of evil — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — support, complement and help each other achieve their goals. We are therefore witnessing a phenomenon that is very serious and dangerous," he added. Related

Removing civilians from harm’s way in advance of an attack is the right thing for warring parties to do if it’s the only way to protect them. But the laws of war stipulate that this can only be done in narrow circumstances as a temporary measure, and civilians should be given a safer location where their humanitarian needs are met, says Nadia Hardman, a researcher at Refugee and Migrant Rights Division of Human Rights Watch.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4885443

Beijing risks entanglement in multiple international conflicts, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran.

This involvement directly contradicts China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI), an international policing framework through which China’s leader, President Xi Jinping, seeks to position China as a diplomatic fulcrum, promoting peace and stability worldwide. This paradox reveals Beijing’s dilemma: can China maintain its self-proclaimed mediator role while aligning itself with states involved in ongoing conflicts?

As these partnerships become more of a liability than an asset, Beijing appears to be approaching a strategic crossroads. Will China recalibrate its relationships with these conflict-prone nations to preserve its diplomatic credibility, or will its aspirations as a global mediator be jeopardized by its ties to states that fuel regional destabilization?

North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

The deployment of North Korean soldiers to support the Russian war in Ukraine has sparked global concerns. While the US has turned to China to intervene and prevent further troop deployments by North Korea, the actions of Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin could complicate Beijing’s regional and international influence.

[...]

Yet, tighter Russian-North Korea cooperation benefits China. It ensures North Korea has an additional patron, which helps preserve the stability of its regime. As RUSI Fellow Samuel Ramani highlights, “China has also leveraged Russia’s diplomatic clout to get Tumen River access, which could tie the Sea of Japan to the Polar Silk Road. North Korea opposed Tumen access historically, and all China had to do for this was store Russia-bound North Korean arms in Zhejiang port.”

[...]

Nevertheless, complications keep arising. The influx of $1 billion in hard currency from artillery sales and additional hundreds of millions from remittances tied to North Korean troop deployments could reduce Pyongyang’s economic reliance on China – a crucial lever Beijing has traditionally used through calibrated adjustments in sanctions enforcement.

[...]

Additionally, South Korea might use this situation to bolster its alliances with the West by supplying munitions to Ukraine, which could complicate China’s diplomatic outreach to Seoul, particularly within the recently revitalized China-Japan-ROK trilateral dialogue framework. This could be further strained if South Korea begins to perceive China as complicit in North Korea’s arms transfers to Russia. Accusations of tacit Chinese complicity may well escalate if Beijing continues to resist US calls to apply pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang – demands it previously opposed when countering Iranian and Houthi assertiveness in the Red Sea.

[...]

Russia has vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate halt to hostilities in Sudan, where a brutal conflict between two rival generals continues unabated.

The draft of the resolution, prepared by Britain and Sierra Leone, called for the warring Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to “engage, in good faith, in dialogue to agree steps to de-escalate the conflict with the aim of urgently agreeing a national ceasefire”.

[...]

Shame on [Russian President Vladimir] for using his mercenaries to spread conflict and violence across the African continent and shame on Putin for pretending to be a partner of the Global South while condemning black Africans to further killing, further rape,” [Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy] said.

[...]

Since April last year, Sudan has been ravaged by fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces – headed by Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, who seized power in a 2021 coup – and the Rapid Support Forces, led by Gen Al Burhan's one-time deputy, Gen Mohamed Dagalo.

The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced more than 11 million people, including 3.1 million who have fled the country, according to UN data.

The humanitarian toll is severe, with 26 million facing acute food shortages and both sides facing accusations of sexual violence.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4885911

**The Russian economy is showing more and more signs that growth is slowing, and economists are beginning to talk more and more about stagflation – a combination of low growth and high inflation. As no-one can openly blame the Ukraine war, the Central Bank highlights “external factors,” while business leaders and government-connected economists blame the Central Bank for imposing record high interest rates. **

[...]

An economic slowdown is a very serious problem during a period of high inflation. And, in modern Russia, it is impossible to treat it using Reaganite methods: slashing spending and reducing regulation to attract foreign investment. Cutting funding for the war and the defense sector is politically inconceivable in Russia at the moment. Even acknowledging that the war and sanctions triggered this cycle of overheating and decline is impossible. That means the Central Bank may well end up being held responsible.

[...]

The Central Bank earlier this month published a report analyzing financial flows. The conclusion was that Russia is on the verge of an economic slowdown. In October, the volume of incoming payments via the Central Bank’s payment system (about half of all payments made in Russia) was down 2.9% compared with the third quarter average. This sort of decline was visible in all industries the Central Bank studied.

[...]

The slowdown is not simply due to declining output in the raw material extraction industries (this has been ongoing for several months amid falling export prices), but also a stuttering manufacturing sector. The only place growth is still noticeable is in sectors linked to the military. Everywhere else in the economy growth is absent, or, at best, anemic.

[...]

All this data has prompted economists to revise downward their projections for Russian GDP growth.

[...]

In a report published Monday, economists from the Institute of Forecasting at Russia’s Academy of Science said that “slowing economic activity and deterioration of financial indicators are becoming increasingly evident in a number of sectors.” And Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) spoke openly in a report Wednesday about possible stagflation. The center (run by the brother of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov) flagged the risk of a recession and falling productivity, especially in low-profit sectors and industries with long project implementation timeframes.

[...]

Russian business leaders line up to attack Nabiullina

Executives at big Russian companies who are unhappy with interest rates at 21% have been angrily criticizing the Central Bank and its head, Elvira Nabiullina. Influential lobby group, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), this week even suggested forcing the Central Bank to coordinate its monetary policy with the government.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4865888

At least three Russian oil refineries could face closures next year as declining exports, high crude oil costs and soaring interest rates lead to mounting financial losses, Reuters reported Friday, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter.

The Tuapse refinery, a large but “relatively unsophisticated” facility owned by the state-backed oil giant Rosneft, has reportedly halted production multiple times this year. Smaller independent refineries, Ilsky in Krasnodar and Novoshakhtinsky in Rostov, have been operating at half capacity for months due to weak profit margins.

The struggling refineries, which are said to have sought financial support from the government, were also targeted in Ukrainian drone strikes this year. These disruptions have been compounded by the impact of Western sanctions, which force them to sell fuel at discounted rates.

“We expect that the actual [plant] closures may take place at the beginning of next year,” a source says.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4862641

The Netherlands' foreign minister, whose ministry oversees export restrictions on top computer chip equipment maker ASML, said on Monday that China-Russia trade was "directly affecting" European security.

NATO views China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia in its war against Ukraine, given that Chinese firms are selling goods that end up as components in Russian weapons, including drones, Caspar Veldkamp said before a meeting with European Union foreign ministers in Brussels.

"I raised this twice with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I think as Europeans we should all do this, because this is something that China should be realizing: it is directly affecting European security," Veldkamp said.

[...]

The Dutch government has rolled out a series of progressively tighter export restrictions preventing ASML from shipping its most advanced technology to Chinese chipmakers.

ASML dominates the market for lithography tools, which are essential for making the circuitry of computer chips.

Despite the restrictions, China has still been the largest market for ASML and other top U.S. and Japanese equipment makers over the past year and a half, as Chinese firms expand capacity to make older chips not covered by restrictions, but still adequate for many military purposes.

[...]

Veldkamp said he would discuss what to do about Chinese support for Russia with other EU foreign ministers on Monday.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4858721

Moldova's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on November 17 condemned “false and unfounded statements” by Russia's newly appointed ambassador to Chisinau, Oleg Ozerov, following his comments on a Russian radio station.

[...]

In his interview, Ozerov claimed that Moldova’s economy depends heavily on Russian trade and suggested that EU accession undermines its neutrality. Moldova's foreign ministry refuted this, noting that over 65% of Moldova's exports go to the EU, compared to just 3.7% to Russia. Even Moldova’s breakaway Transnistrian region, which is backed by Russia, sends over 80% of its exports to EU markets.

[...]

The ministry criticised Russia for imposing politically motivated trade embargoes, contrasting this with the EU’s transparent trade rules. “EU countries are reliable partners for Moldova's agricultural goods, while Russia's embargoes have harmed local producers and families,” it said.

Addressing neutrality, the ministry highlighted Russia’s violation of Moldova's constitutional neutrality through its military presence in the Transnistrian region, maintained against Moldova’s will.

It dismissed the suggestion that EU membership compromises neutrality, citing Austria, Ireland and Malta as neutral EU member states.

[...]

[Molodova] urged Ozerov to adhere to the Vienna Convention and cease spreading propaganda, focusing instead on diplomatic norms and practical solutions to benefit citizens in both countries.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4854819

Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who is currently the Green Party's chancellor candidate in the upcoming elections, said that if elected, he would send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked his allies for long-range weapons so that the Ukrainian military can attack Russian logistics centers and military bases far behind the front line and within Russian territory.

But until now, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has chosen not to supply Taurus cruise missiles, saying they could enable Ukraine to also hit targets in the Russian capital Moscow.

[...]

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron reacted to the Russian air barrage on Ukraine, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin "does not want peace and is not ready to negotiate."

"It's clear that President Putin intends to intensify the fighting," Macron said.

He made the remarks as he prepared to leave Argentina to attend the G20 Summit in Brazil.

[...]

The French president, however, said Ukraine's allies "must remain united .... on an agenda for genuine peace, that is to say, a peace that does not mean Ukraine's surrender."

Macron highlighted that his country's priority was to "equip, support and help Ukraine to resist."

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4853883

[The article is an analysis of the cooperation agreement signed between Finland and China by two Finnish scholars.]

Geopolitical tensions were prominently featured in the discussions between the two heads of state [of Finland and China during Finland's president in Beijing this week]. In contrast to the laudatory tone of the Chinese media, the the Finnish President's official press release stated that the central topic of the talks was Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, as had been the focus of previous visits of EU leaders as well. [Finnish President] Stubb, who earlier stated [Chinese President] Xi could end the war in Ukraine with “just one phone call”, reportedly focused on convincing the Chinese president of the importance of the conflict for Finland and the rest of the European Union, emphasizing that Putin could not be trusted.

Yet apparently, China cannot be completely trusted either. Far from boosting cooperation, the New Joint Action Plan signed by Finland and China represents a reality different from the praises in Chinese media. Strikingly, the plan, which describes the main avenues of Sino-Finnish future cooperation, is only five pages long [and] the focal points of the plan give an impression of shrinking cooperation.

[...]

The Arctic domain is entirely absent from the new Sino-Finnish action plan. In contrast to the 2019 plan, which envisioned deepening Arctic cooperation in the fields of law, research and marine technology, the new plan does not mention the Arctic at all.

The omission is rather unsurprising. Since the signing of the 2019 plan, the Arctic security situation has changed dramatically and Finland’s Arctic projects involving Chinese stakeholders have been quietly cancelled or put on ice. Examples include the termination of the planned Arctic railway project connecting Norway’s Kirkenes and Rovaniemi, and the Finnish security authorities’ refusal to provide satellite services to China in the Arctic Space Center in Sodankylä or to rent an airport for Arctic research flights near the Finnish Defence Forces’ firing range in Kemijärvi.

[...]

This state of affairs reflects broader suspicion towards Chinese intentions, as the Finnish media have increasingly reported on the covert activities of Chinese “united front groups” and scholars with connections to military-civilian fusion projects, for instance. Finally, in 2023, a Chinese container vessel, on its way to St. Petersburg via the Arctic Northeastern passage, destroyed a gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia. Before its ill-fated journey, the vessel, Newnew Polar Bear, was celebrated in the Chinese media as a harbinger of increased Arctic cooperation between China and Russia. Whether the incident was intentional or not (the investigation is still ongoing), it caused a flurry of media speculation on a possible Chinese grey-zone operation in the Baltic Sea.

Since officially launching its Polar Silk Road in 2017, China has attempted to expand its presence within the Arctic countries through economic, diplomatic and scientific cooperation, but it now seems that the Arctic leg of the Belt and Road is not extending to Finland or into its neighbouring Nordic countries either. Consequently, China's Arctic expansion now increasingly relies on Russia.

Finland’s distancing from Arctic cooperation with China reflects deeper dynamics than mere domestic concerns. As the great power competition between “democratic” and “authoritarian” camps intensifies, Finland is increasingly “de-risking” from China, while integrating with its Western partners.

[...]

Finland’s changed approach to China provides the latest example for the Chinese leadership that there is a price to be paid for its “strategic straddle”; attempting to maintain business-as-usual relations with Europe while de facto enabling a brutal invasion in Ukraine. Naturally, this straddle is most severely felt in Russian neighbour states, including Finland, which shares the longest border with Russia in Europe.

[...]

Symbolic of the deteriorating Sino-Finnish relations, two giant pandas leased to Ähtäri zoo by China in 2017 are set to return to China eight years ahead of schedule due to financial problems. One might ask whether this reflects a broader reality for China’s Arctic cooperation in the future?

In its new lawsuit, Ben & Jerry's says that Unilever has breached the terms of the 2022 settlement, which has remained confidential. As part of the agreement, however, Unilever is required to "respect and acknowledge the Ben & Jerry's independent board's primary responsibility over Ben & Jerry's social mission," according to the lawsuit.

But, according to the lawsuit, "Ben & Jerry's has on four occasions attempted to publicly speak out in support of peace and human rights. Unilever has silenced each of these efforts."

Ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Brazil visit on November 20, Brasilia has junked China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), becoming the second BRICS country after India to reject Beijing’s multi-billion dollar venture.

Earlier in December 2023, Italy, the only G7 country to have signed for BRI, also withdrew from China’s vast infrastructure initiative.

This move by Brazil—an influential player in the BRICS bloc—signals rising concerns about the long-term implications of China’s expanding global footprint through the BRI.

Prioritizing Strategic Autonomy

Under President Lula da Silva’s leadership, Brazil seeks to strengthen its ties with China while avoiding the formal commitments associated with joining the BRI.

Brazilian officials are actively pursuing Chinese investments without formal accession to the BRI, reflecting the country’s desire to maintain strategic autonomy while exploring various infrastructure and trade projects with China.

In an interview with the Brazilian newspaper O Globo, Celso Amorim, Brazil’s special presidential adviser for international affairs [...] clarified that Brazil does not view Chinese trade and infrastructure projects as “an insurance policy,” stating, “We are not entering into a treaty.”

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4765221

[The article is originally published by AP.]

On the edge of Peru’s coastal desert [...] the megaport of Chancay, a $1.3 billion project majority-owned by the Chinese shipping giant Cosco, is turning this outpost of bobbing fishing boats into an important node of the global economy. China’s President Xi Jinping inaugurates the port Thursday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru.

The development [...] has met a skeptical response from impoverished villagers, who say it is depriving them of fishing waters and bringing no economic benefit to locals.

“Our fishing spots no longer exist here. They destroyed them,” said 78-year-old fisherman Julius Caesar — “like the emperor of Rome” — gesturing toward the dockside cranes. [...]

The Peruvian government hopes the port 60 kilometers (37 miles) north of Lima will become a strategic transshipment hub for the region, opening a new line connecting South America to Asia and speeding trade across the Pacific for Peru’s blueberries, Brazil’s soybeans and Chile’s copper, among other exports. Officials cite the port’s potential to generate millions of dollars in revenues and turn coastal cities into so-called special economic zones with tax breaks to lure investment.

“We Peruvians are focused primarily on the well-being of Peruvians,” Foreign Minister Elmer Schialer told The Associated Press.

But many of Chancay’s 60,000 residents are unconvinced. Fishermen returning to port with smaller catches complain that they have already lost out.

The dredging of the port — which sucked sediment from the seabed to create a shipping channel 17 meters (56 feet) deep — has ruined fish breeding grounds, locals said.

“I’ve been out in the water all day and I’m always needing to venture farther,” said Rafael Ávila, a 28-year-old fisherman with sand in his hair, returning to shore empty-handed and exhausted.

“This used to be enough,” he said, pointing at his painted dinghy. “Now I need a larger, more expensive boat to reach the fish.”

[...]

With some of the world’s largest container ships to berth at Chancay Port in January 2025, residents also fear the arrival of pollution and oil spills. In 2022, a botched tanker delivery at La Pampilla refinery nearby sent thousands of barrels of crude oil spilling into Peru’s famously biodiverse waters, killing countless fish and putting legions of fishermen out of work.

Today a glance at the moribund town center, featuring mostly empty seafood restaurants, tells the story of diminished fishing stocks and decimated tourism even without the port being operational.

The port’s breakwater changed the currents and destroyed good surfing conditions, locals said, affecting everyone from ice vendors to truckers to restaurant owners. “No to the megaport” is spray-painted on a wall overlooking the waterfront.

“This port is a monster that’s come here to screw us,” said 40-year-old Rosa Collantes, cleaning and gutting slimy drum fish on the shore. “People come to the port and they say ‘Wow, tremendous!’ but they don’t see the reality.”

[...]

cross-posted from: https://feddit.org/post/4764066

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The choices, and the stakes, would remain very similar to what they were in February 2022, says Historian Anne Applebaum, senior fellow at the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University and the School of Advanced International Studies.

"Either we [the Western democracies] inflict enough economic pressure and military pain to convince Russia that the war can never be won, or we deal with the far more ominous, and far more expensive, consequences of Ukraine’s loss."

“Land for peace” sounds nice, but the president of Russia isn’t fighting for land. Putin is fighting not to conquer Pokrovsk but to destroy Ukraine as a nation. He wants to show his own people that Ukraine’s democratic aspirations are hopeless. He wants to prove that a whole host of international laws and norms, including the United Nations Charter and the Geneva conventions, no longer matter. His goal is not to have peace but to build concentration camps, torture civilians, kidnap 20,000 Ukrainian children, and get away with it—which, so far, he has.

Putin will truly stop fighting only if he loses the war, loses power, or loses control of his economy. And there is plenty of evidence that he fears all three, despite his troops’ slow movement forward. He would not have imported thousands of North Korean soldiers if he had an infinite number of Russians to replace the more than 600,000 soldiers whom he has lost to injury or death. He would not have paid American YouTubers to promote anti-Ukrainian propaganda if he wasn’t worried by the American public’s continued support for Ukraine. His economy is in trouble: Russian inflation is rising fast; Russian interest rates are now at 21 percent; Russian industries particularly vulnerable to sanctions, such as liquefied natural gas, are suffering. The Russian navy was humiliated in the Black Sea. The Russian military has still not recaptured territory lost in Russia’s Kursk province, conquered by the Ukrainians last summer.