tootoughtoremember

joined 8 months ago
[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 22 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

In the latest version I found of Nate Silver's model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he's basing that on.

However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris's <5% of outcomes.

This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn't that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 7 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

The state was Utah, the governor quoted the following in his veto statement:

Here are the numbers that have most impacted my decision: 75,000, 4, 1, 86 and 56.

  • 75,000 high school kids participating in high school sports in Utah.
  • 4 transgender kids playing high school sports in Utah.
  • 1 transgender student playing girls sports.
  • 86% of trans youth reporting suicidality.
  • 56% of trans youth having attempted suicide.

The veto was overridden.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 17 points 1 week ago (3 children)

I got a hail of down votes just two weeks ago for saying Democrats are appealing to the Republicans 10-20 years ago, and now here we are.

Couldn't the campaign be about championing progressive change on popular issues rather than capitulating to Republican narratives on immigration and crime, and being "honored" by the endorsement of war criminals?

And who is writing shit like "most lethal fighting force" into her convention acceptance speech, while Trump is out there on the road saying no more wars. I don't believe him, but plenty of moms and dads of soldiers will.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

Right, the party with the most seats won would get first shot at forming government.

If your assumption is that the Conservatives would win the next election with a majority, then they would be able to form government without needing to rely on any other party (like the Libs rely on the NDP now).

Since political parties in parliamentary democracies typically vote uniformly, a majority party is generally able to pass legislation regardless of the position of opposition parties, which is why I questioned the presumption of gridlock.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 10 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Something Lucas did well in my eyes was world building. To me that's the most redeeming part of the prequels, the universe felt vast yet connected. The sequels felt small in comparison and a little too familiar. The only place I wanted to see more of was Kijimi.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 1 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)

NDP +Libs outnumber them now, yes. I assumed by "Cons can grab majority" you meant a majority of seats following an election, no?

Not true. Trump prominently mentioned his son Barron and his proficiency with "the cyber", eight years ago.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 2 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

Cons can grab majority but will be gridlocked on every move

Genuine question, why the assumption of gridlock if the conservatives form government with a majority?

It doesn't appear to use either.

The MLS® HPI is based on the value home buyers assign to various housing attributes, which tend to evolve gradually over time.

I can't seem to find how they define value, or how they determine a home buyers interest in various housing attributes.

Since it's MLS own metric, I would take it with a grain of salt anyways.

[–] tootoughtoremember@lemmy.world 4 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Average home prices are from the CREA MLS® Home Price Index (HPI)

I was able to match the pricing data in the article to the "Composite" figures on the HPI website. The amounts include condos.

Just leave that to your friendly local warlord to settle.

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