Vincent

joined 1 year ago
[–] Vincent@kbin.social 11 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Ik denk dat de VVD verwacht dat, zeker zonder de VVD, de PVV, NSC en BBB er samen niet gaan uitkomen. Als die onderhandelingen vervolgens klappen, dan kunnen ze zeggen, "tsja, als het moet, dan gaan we wel met Timmermans onderhandelen, het land moet immers toch bestuurd worden, en anders wordt het wel een erg linkse regering".

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 9 points 11 months ago (1 children)

It works great in combination with the keyboard shortcuts for opening the first, second, ... eighth tab, which is Alt+1 (or +2, +3, etc.) for me, but I think is Ctrl or Cmd instead of Alt on other OS's.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 2 points 11 months ago

Haha yeah fair enough, he got a majority of electors (I think that's the right term?), but not of the popular vote, which is what counts in the Netherlands - another sign of how different the electoral systems are. But yeah, the larger point is that the level of popular support is way lower.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 13 points 11 months ago (2 children)

Reminder: 2021 was not a normal year, due to the pandemic, and emissions have risen again afterwards, IIRC. The trendline is good, but comparing these specific years doesn't paint the clearest picture.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

At least it was wrong about Timmermans 😅

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago

Would have to be both. I guess technically that's an option, in that it might make it more palatable for VVD+NSC, but then we're at a five-party coalition (six if you count GL/PvdA as two parties).

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

Also, if they don't manage to successfully negotiate, then a likely next step will be for the second-largest party to get a shot at negotiating, trying to form its own majority together with other parties.

If negotiations keep failing, other options are a minority government, or new elections. But usually, enough parties (i.e. with a combined total of >75 seats) find a way to work together.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago

Those 15 additional seats would have to come from voters who did not vote for him, getting angry about him not governing. If they wanted him in the government, why didn't they vote for him?

And this is especially true in the case of NSC, who've said multiple times beforehand that they'd rather not govern with PVV. If you voted for them, you can't (and probably wouldn't) really be mad at them for doing what they said they'd do.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

And D66, otherwise they won't have a majority. Though the Senate (Eerste Kamer) I think will still be a challenge.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 4 points 1 year ago (3 children)

At the same time, people are bound to compare it to e.g. Trump, who actually got a majority. It's good to know that our electoral system works differently, if you're unfamiliar with it.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Nou ja, negeren. Ik denk dat ze wel coalitieonderhandelingen gaan doen, maar als je er niet uitkomt dan kom je er niet uit. Bovendien zouden die extra stemmen in volgende verkiezingen moeten komen van mensen die nu níet op Wilders hebben gestemd, maar dus wel boos zouden zijn dat hij niet in de regering gaat. Wellicht voor de VVD een risico, maar ik denk dat dat voor NSC een stuk minder een schrikbeeld zou zijn; zij hebben voor de verkiezingen er redelijk op gehamerd geen fan van de PVV te zijn, dus hun kiezers zullen dat ook niet per se zijn.

[–] Vincent@kbin.social 29 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Well, that's not set in stone yet. If he doesn't manage to form a coalition (and it's very much in the realm of possibilities that he won't be able to), the GreenLeft-Labour Party is next in line. In which case a GL-PvdA/VVD/NSC/D66 coalition (parties #2-#5) is not unlikely. Which I'm guessing would have to make some concessions when it comes to migration, but would probably be OK-ish news for the EU, the climate, and democracy and rule of law.

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