FlowVoid

joined 1 year ago
[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 58 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago) (1 children)

No, you didn't see this poll predicting Hillary crushing Iowa.

The Selzer poll is one of the best, it only looks at Iowa, and in 2016 it was one of the few that said Trump was doing much better than everyone expected.

In 2020 it said Biden was doing better than Clinton, but Trump was nevertheless doing better than expected.

In both cases, it was spot on. And this year, it says Trump is doing far worse than everyone thinks.

That said... Go vote!

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Right, LV polls often don't ask where you voted.

But this article is not about a poll. They are looking publicly available PA voting records. They look like this:

  • Doe, John: voted in 2024, 2020
  • Doe, Jane: voted in 2024

PA isn't going to cross-reference their database with other states. So there is no good way to tell if Jane Doe is a first time voter or just a recent move. Either way, she is a new voter.

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 14 points 1 day ago (2 children)

That's huge because new voters aren't counted by pollsters as "likely voters".

Actually, they might be. In this article, a "new voter" is someone who did not vote in 2020 in Pennsylvania.

If they voted elsewhere in 2020 (ie recently moved to PA) then they could be counted as likely voters in polls even though they are "new voters".

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 21 points 1 day ago

Musk Deportation Now!

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Summary judgment just means neither side needs to call witnesses or engage in discovery.

I'm not sure that applies here, but if so it doesn't necessarily favor the DA.

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 11 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

That's not how it works.

When the EV's for a state are counted, the House and Senate have one opportunity to object.

If there is an objection, a vote is called. A majority in both houses is necessary to reject those EVs.

If there is not a majority in both houses then the motion fails, the EV's are accepted, and the VP moves on to the next state.

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago

enthusiasm doesn't pay the bills

We don't need your platitudes either

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 20 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (4 children)

When the votes are counted, the presiding officer will be VP Kamala Harris, not the House Speaker.

And the only way to block a state's certification is if both the House and Senate agree. Otherwise they have to accept the results certified by the governor.

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 3 points 2 days ago

It's the "same thing" in the sense that they both already happened.

[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 111 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)
  • This is a lawsuit, not criminal charges. It could be bad for Musk (see: Engoron decision) but there is no risk of arrest or jail. Yet.
  • Defendants who lose lawsuits cannot be pardoned. Only criminal charges can be pardoned.
  • "All parties must be present" means someone on the defendant's side must be present. It is not unusual for only the lawyer(s) to attend.
  • The case has been moved to federal court for now. But it could be moved back if the federal court decides it belongs in state court.
[–] FlowVoid@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

I think you underestimate your customers.

A 10 day weather forecast typically includes a graph with a y-axis break. It is meant for the general public, and most people have no difficulty interpreting it.

 

Ending the Gaza war: Three phase proposal

PHASE ONE

  • It would begin with a six-week ceasefire, during which the IDF would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza
  • Hamas would release "a number" of hostages - including women, the elderly and the wounded - in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Some remains of dead Israeli hostages would be returned to their families
  • Palestinian civilians would return to their homes in all areas of Gaza
  • Humanitarian assistance would "surge", with 600 trucks a day entering the strip, and hundreds of thousands of temporary housing units sent by the international community

During that six week period, negotiations mediated by the US and Qatar would continue. If successful, the next part of the plan would begin.

...

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