this post was submitted on 30 Jun 2023
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Bali Major 2023 | Day 3 - Fantasy Guide (lemm.ee)
submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by Azzu@lemm.ee to c/dota2@lemm.ee
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cross-posted from: https://lemmit.online/post/54378

This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/dota2 by /u/Hawkie74 on 2023-06-30 15:07:24+00:00.

TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

  • I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you evaluate your results.
  • The exponentially weighted averages across each player's 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
  • This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. ~~For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727's guides.~~

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*

| Indicator | Core | Mid | Support | |

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| Camps Stacked | 7.09 | 3.96 | 11.61 | | Creep Score | 7.84 | 6.14 | 1.76 | | Deaths | 14.09 | 12.14 | 8.30 | | First Blood | 3.06 | 1.61 | 3.24 | | GPM | 9.11 | 7.45 | 4.66 | | Kills | 11.87 | 14.00 | 6.33 | | Obs Wards | 0.62 | 3.96 | 28.48 | | Roshan Kills | 2.62 | 1.95 | 0.36 | | Runes Grabbed | 6.21 | 17.94 | 9.27 | | Stuns | 9.49 | 11.20 | 9.37 | | Teamfight | 13.81 | 13.47 | 14.52 | | Tower Kills | 14.21 | 6.17 | 2.10 |

Summer Major 2023

**Table 2:* The schedule.*

| Team 1 | Team 2 | Series | Time | |

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| Shopify Rebellion | Execration | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 02:00 UTC | | Team Liquid | Team Spirit | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 02:00 UTC | | Team Aster | beastcoast | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 02:00 UTC | | Tundra Esports | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 02:00 UTC | | PSG.LGD | BetBoom Team | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 04:30 UTC | | 9Pandas | Evil Geniuses | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 04:30 UTC | | BLEED | Azure Ray | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 04:30 UTC | | nouns | Quest Esports | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 04:30 UTC | | INVICTUS GAMING | Team Liquid | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 07:00 UTC | | Shopify Rebellion | Team Aster | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 07:00 UTC | | Team Spirit | beastcoast | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 07:00 UTC | | Execration | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 07:00 UTC | | 9Pandas | BetBoom Team | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 09:30 UTC | | BLEED | nouns | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 09:30 UTC | | Evil Geniuses | Quest Esports | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 09:30 UTC | | Azure Ray | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo2 | 2023-07-01 09:30 UTC |

**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*

| Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Exp. | |

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| TA2000 | Quest Esports | Bo2 + Bo2 | 18.12 | 8.03 | 41.53 | | ~~JimPark~~ | ~~beastcoast~~ | ~~Bo2 + Bo2~~ | ~~17.61~~ | ~~6.50~~ | ~~39.50~~ | | Raven^ | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 + Bo2 | 16.89 | 5.12 | 37.16 | | JACKKY | BLEED | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.80 | 6.01 | 33.55 | | Nightfall | BetBoom Team | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.69 | 4.70 | 32.47 | | Monet | Team Aster | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.46 | 4.93 | 32.17 | | 天鸽 | Shopify Rebellion | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.54 | 4.50 | 32.05 | | Pakazs | Evil Geniuses | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.99 | 6.10 | 32.00 | | Lou | Azure Ray | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.11 | 5.30 | 31.72 | | RAMZES666 | 9Pandas | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.83 | 5.82 | 31.49 | | Palos | Execration | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.56 | 5.93 | 31.03 | | dyrachyo | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo2 | 15.44 | 3.95 | 30.88 | | Yatoro雨 | Team Spirit | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.65 | 4.88 | 30.51 | | Yamsun | nouns | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.12 | 5.73 | 30.00 | | m1CKe | Team Liquid | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.48 | 4.13 | 29.68 | | Dust | INVICTUS GAMING | Bo2 | 14.74 | 5.12 | 29.48 | | Collapse | Team Spirit | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.08 | 3.91 | 28.74 | | AMMAR_THE_F | Quest Esports | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.73 | 4.92 | 28.69 | | skiter | Tundra Esports | Bo2 | 14.23 | 4.60 | 28.46 | | shiro | PSG.LGD | Bo2 | 14.04 | 5.32 | 28.08 | | Tino | Execration | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.44 | 4.52 | 27.85 | | Ace ♠ | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo2 | 13.73 | 4.44 | 27.46 | | zai | Team Liquid | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.39 | 4.02 | 27.43 | | SaberLight | Shopify Rebellion | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.28 | 3.86 | 27.11 | | 33 | Tundra Esports | Bo2 | 13.46 | 3.74 | 26.92 | | Moo | nouns | Bo2 + Bo2 | 11.94 | 4.40 | 26.77 | | iceiceice | BLEED | Bo2 + Bo2 | 11.72 | 5.01 | 26.73 | | chalice | Azure Ray | Bo2 + Bo2 | 11.65 | 4.74 | 26.42 | | kpii | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 + Bo2 | 11.66 | 4.30 | 26.15 | | Pure~ | BetBoom Team | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.10 | 2.90 | 26.11 | | Xxs | Team Aster | Bo2 + Bo2 | 11.58 | 3.43 | 25.43 | | Wisper | Evil Geniuses | Bo2 + Bo2 | 10.64 | 3.66 | 23.69 | | MieRo` | 9Pandas | Bo2 + Bo2 | 10.71 | 3.36 | 23.63 | | Sacred | beastcoast | Bo2 + Bo2 | 10.33 | 3.42 | 22.91 | | 项羽 | INVICTUS GAMING | Bo2 | 11.31 | 4.43 | 22.62 | | niu | PSG.LGD | Bo2 | 11.19 | 3.86 | 22.38 |

**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*

| Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Exp. | |

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| No!ob™ | Quest Esports | Bo2 + Bo2 | 16.80 | 5.22 | 37.04 | | Abed | Shopify Rebellion | Bo2 + Bo2 | 16.44 | 4.54 | 35.87 | | gpk~ | BetBoom Team | Bo2 + Bo2 | 16.50 | 3.98 | 35.63 | | Karl | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 + Bo2 | 16.18 | 4.94 | 35.61 | | DarkMago♡ | beastcoast | Bo2 + Bo2 | 16.04 | 4.79 | 35.24 | | kiyotaka | 9Pandas | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.77 | 5.09 | 34.89 | | Gunnar | nouns | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.19 | 5.91 | 34.27 | | Somnus | Azure Ray | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.46 | 5.00 | 34.20 | | Nisha | Team Liquid | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.42 | 5.06 | 34.18 | | Larl | Team Spirit | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.77 | 3.50 | 33.85 | | Emo | INVICTUS GAMING | Bo2 | 16.50 | 5.77 | 33.00 | | Suma1L- | Team Aster | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.93 | 4.15 | 32.60 | | C.smile < | Evil Geniuses | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.64 | 4.65 | 32.35 | | Quinn | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo2 | 15.66 | 3.71 | 31.31 | | Kordan | BLEED | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.25 | 4.22 | 31.28 | | Nine | Tundra Esports | Bo2 | 15.14 | 4.42 | 30.28 | | Bob | Execration | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.07 | 5.00 | 29.43 | | NothingToSay | PSG.LGD | Bo2 | 14.58 | 4.11 | 29.16 |

**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*

| Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Exp. | |

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| 皮球 | Team Aster | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.92 | 3.99 | 34.47 | | Carlo | Execration | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.46 | 5.19 | 34.35 | | kaori | Quest Esports | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.28 | 5.37 | 34.10 | | Insania | Team Liquid | Bo2 + Bo2 | 15.66 | 3.11 | 33.36 | | tOfu | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo2 | 16.32 | 6.45 | 32.65 | | Saksa | Tundra Esports | Bo2 | 16.01 | 4.35 | 32.03 | | DJ | BLEED | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.51 | 4.40 | 31.93 | | Pyw | INVICTUS GAMING | Bo2 | 15.92 | 5.07 | 31.84 | | DuBu | BLEED | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.52 | 4.19 | 31.80 | | OmaR | Quest Esports | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.13 | 4.92 | 31.50 | | 天命 | Azure Ray | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.43 | 3.68 | 31.28 | | TIMS | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.39 | 3.54 | 31.12 | | Antares | 9Pandas | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.18 | 3.88 | 30.91 | | TORONTOTOKYO | BetBoom Team | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.24 | 3.59 | 30.85 | | Miposhka | Team Spirit | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.29 | 3.27 | 30.75 | | BossKu^ | Blacklist Rivalry | Bo2 + Bo2 | 14.00 | 3.52 | 30.32 | | Cr1t- | Shopify Rebellion | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.89 | 3.79 | 30.27 | | Matthew | Evil Geniuses | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.73 | 4.23 | 30.25 | | Mira | Team Spirit | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.68 | 4.00 | 30.00 | | Solo | 9Pandas | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.77 | 3.62 | 29.92 | | fy | Azure Ray | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.67 | 3.94 | 29.92 | | Husky | nouns | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.74 | 3.41 | 29.73 | | Seleri | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo2 | 14.68 | 5.70 | 29.35 | | Shanks | Execration | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.32 | 3.79 | 29.13 | | Scofield | beastcoast | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.18 | 4.12 | 29.07 | | stingeR | beastcoast | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.29 | 3.33 | 28.78 | | Panda | Evil Geniuses | Bo2 + Bo2 | 13.14 | 3.48 | 28.58 | | planet | PSG.LGD | Bo2 | 14.24 | 3.24 | 28.49 | | Sneyking | Tundra Esports | Bo2 | 14.08 | 3.59 | 28.16 | | Save- | BetBoom Team | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.82 | 3.43 | 27.90 | | BoBoKa | Team Aster | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.66 | 3.47 | 27.60 | | Boxi | Team Liquid | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.72 | 3.08 | 27.46 | | Fly | Shopify Rebellion | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.40 | 3.95 | 27.40 | | qyqx | INVICTUS GAMING | Bo2 | 13.51 | 3.73 | 27.02 | | WhyouSm1Le | PSG.LGD | Bo2 | 13.40 | 4.01 | 26.79 | | Lelis | nouns | Bo2 + Bo2 | 12.03 | 3.63 | 26.45 |

Notes

  • The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.
  • The numbers here are based on each player's 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches.
  • Each match has been exponentially weighted such that the most recent matches have the biggest impact.

Glossary

  • Avg.: Average.
  • Std.: Standard deviation.
  • Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
  • Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
  • Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
  • (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.
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