This would be hilarious if there wasn't a chance of nukes ending up in even worse hands. What a shit show, hopefully this gives Ukraine some breathing room to go even harder on the offensive.
this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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I sure hope those nukes dont fall into the hands of a belligerent nation invading their neighbors and threatening to nuke anyone who gets in their way, that'd be quite an escalation!
The thing people don't realize about nukes is that you don't just build them once and bob's your uncle, you have a nuclear bomb forever. The material starts to decay and the potency of the bomb is then greatly diminished. Nukes must be maintained to keep them operational. In fact, I know westinghouse would buy old unspent weapon's grade material, and then refine/dilute the material to convert into fuel rods for nuclear power plants. Given the war, I don't know if that's still the case.
But yeah, nukes take a lot of effort and resources to maintain as far as I understand it.
Pretty much what I'm thinking. Wagner Group is essentially Nazis.
Which is ironic since that was Putin's justification for invading Ukraine.
"The call is coming from inside the house"
Yeah fascist Putin planted and supported fascists around Europe. Then used that as an excuse to attack Ukraine and now one of his fascist merc groups is attacking one of his fascist armies.
Infighting as usual. Fascists all the way down
Interesting why would they leave if they don't consider Wagner that much of a threat 🤔 Also what happens if Wagner actually manage to get into Moscow and their "enemies" are not there? Would they seize the media to broadcast for people to join them? What else can they even do in this scenario? Not sure what the game plan is here.
Putin has to say that Wagner isn't that much of a threat to keep people calm and following his orders.
I would imagine that Prigozhin would do the same thing that any other person attempting a coup would do, seize control of government buildings and other important facilities and attempt to convince the public that he is in charge.
The best answer anyone can give to those questions are "I don't know". Anything else is a guess.
My guess is, if Wagner takes Moscow and Putin's not there, Putin is done. Gorbachev wasn't in Moscow when the last coup happened. But once a leader has lost control to this degree, it's hard for anyone to respect them as a leader again.
If Wagner takes Moscow, it's game over for Putler, His only option would be to split the country with him as the leader of the break away region.
Now, the million dollar question, what happens with the nukes? The long range balistic missiles would probably fall into Prigozhin's hands, but what happens with the ones in Belarus? Which side will Lukashenko support? Will he let Putin use this tactical weapons against Wagner troops or hand them over to Prigozhin?
So many unknowns right now.
Taking a physical city doesn't really do much. You have to take over the political structure, which can move around. Short of taking the whole country I don't see how this will work.
Perhaps Putin abandoning his people in Moscow to a rabid mercenary will push them to revolt and join Prigozhin, out of immediate fear if nothing else
And then we all woke up and realise the russian people are gonna do nothing.
As is the case with most industrialized nations.
It almost reads to me like he worries how much support he had in Moscow. If the Wagner group is 25k strong and 100s of kilometers away why flee? Unless there seems to be grumbles from the royal guard about killing their countrymen over 1 dude.
They are currently 200km outside of Moscow
Damn, last I heard they were 500km away.
I'm going to sleep now, hope they don't reach Moscow before I wake up. wink wink
Put your alarm clock to 30min from now and 15min snooze intervals...
You jinxed it
These two reactions stood out to me.
First from exiled former oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky:
We need to help now, and then, if necessary, we will fight this one, too," Khodorkovsky, a former oil tycoon who fell foul of the Kremlin, wrote on social media. He said it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin. "And yes, this is just the beginning.
Second from the Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists:
In this fight between two cannibals, anarchists should stay away—let them bleed each other as much as possible. That way, they won’t be able to disturb people in the future.
Cannibal take seems accurate, kinda how it feels looking in too. Not glad about any of these people in charge, but at least they hurt each other right now.
He needs a ride, not ammunition.
Fucked around. Found out.
The Public Council of the Federal Penitentiary Service confirmed the information of the VCHK-OGPU about the riot in the Vodnik pre-trial detention center. "Prisoners began synchronously knocking on the doors of the cells and screaming," they said.https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672575188850843648
Wagner is made up of a large number of ex convicts, I wonder how much sway Prigozhin has with the prisons' population in Russia.
Rats fleeing the sinking ship.
Putin should run away to Finland or other Baltic countries. I think they have good transports to a luxury hotel in The Hague just for him.
Finland’s no Baltic nation FYI.
Baltic countries don't want him...that's why they joined NATO. Quite frankly, the Baltic countries want nothing to do with Russia...hence Baltic countries.
woosh
Assuming this is true:
Tver [also known as Kalinin] was formerly the capital of a powerful medieval state. [...] it vied with Moscow for supremacy in Russia.
Power struggles in Russia going back centuries.
The high-speed train Sapsan, which connects Moscow with St. Petersburg, also makes stops in Tver, as well as the Tolstoy train connecting Moscow to Helsinki, Finland. [...] The newly designed high-speed railway line between Moscow and St Petersburg is expected to have a "New Tver'" station several kilometres southward of the city border.
Sounds like it was a quick escape route from Moscow, has a secret rail line to one of Putin's hidden fortresses, and has a quick escape out of the country if needed. There's also a military airfield for another escape route. I didn't see mention of any nearby army bases, which could be useful if the army revolts.
You think Finland would just let Putin in?
Time to go to an underground bunker
Best news of 2023 so far if true
I am not so sure yet but seems Wagner guy at least might have some humanity left. Considering he was upset the war was baseless.
Wagner guy at least might have some humanity left
Funny, but no.
Nope. He saw weakness and an opportunity, so he seized it. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get… well, worse.
Yeah, no. Russia's biggest achievement in denazifying Ukraine was having the Wagner troops leave Ukraine. Second biggest will be when Russia's own army leaves.
Prigozhin is about as bad as Putin, if not worse. He's done a lot of dirty work for Putin.
Prigozhin is probably upset about the war in Ukraine because it isn't in their interests. They are PMCs, mercenaries. They have no interest in fighing a long protracted war and suffering large-scaled casualties for little gain either politically or monetarily. He also likely smells blood in the water, Putin is in the weakest position he has ever been in as we talk abou tthis even.
Wagner in contrast whilst suffering is in ascendancy. They are the strongest and largest they've ever been and seem to be doing a lot of heavy lifting in Ukraine for the Russians. So they're disastisfied but also seem to have the means to do something about it.
They'd much rather be deployed to fight the more conventional wars that Mercenaries fight these days in the global south. And as long as Putin is in charge there is a good chance Wagner isn't going to get back to fighting those wars. So it would make sense that they mutiny.
Idk why, but this whole thing gives me similar vibes as the Turkish coupe from a couple of years ago.
That was fake, this one seems real.
I'm understanding the word casus belli more and more as this special operation drags on. What a train wreck.
promising
Watch your back Putin
Interesting liveticker to the whole thing:
https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup
Latest news is that they stopped going for Moscow and leader of group is going to Belarus... Too bad.