I don’t think this is totally accurate. There’s a point to be made sure but nobody knows for sure what will happen.
this post was submitted on 24 Dec 2023
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i agree, this is less about civilization collapse and more about poor resource management. toss in a little wilful ignorance on the problem solving of humans, and you end up with this doom and gloom stuff. feels like ive been readin this crap my entire life (ozone!)
its proven mature societies populations stabilize, and resource management is just humans not being dicks to each other (a notable roadblock).
i think there will be societal shrinkage, but it aint constanza just-out-of-the-pool shrinkage. certainly not a collapse
The healing of the ozone layer was one of the most successful examples of global human cooperation.
You're undermining your own point. That kind of cooperation and commitment is what we NEED to be doing but aren't
no, not really.
the OP link is to a gloom and doom person who claims we should all just give up.
my point is that the whole idea of 'giving up' is not plausible as a state in which we ever exist. given what we have actually accomplished as a planet, and what we can accomplish in small, mature communities the link is to hyperbolic nonsense
I'm confused. You called out the ozone issue in a way that made it sound like you believed the ozone crisis was over-hyped because we don't hear about it anymore.
We don't hear about it anymore because nations of the world actually took action together, and it was solved. In your response, you seem to agree with that.
The circles have me spinning.
I mwant that the Op link ignores humans ability to problem solve, like we have with the ozone.
That’s before half of our country doesn’t believe in a virus, much less the effects of climate change.
Ahhh makes sense now
But you also must remember that the Ozone Layer issue was before social media became a thing.
Surely we're at the point where we can at least agree that whatever is going to happen is not going to be good.
Doomerism encourages apathy and helplessness. I don’t agree with resigning ourselves that the situation is unfixable. Every .1 degrees we can shave off is worth fighting tooth and nail for. As far as whether humanity as a whole is sustainable indefinitely, I don’t buy it. Even if we run out of rare earth metals 1000 years from now that’s 1000 years we have to fix that problem.
The universe is unsustainable, life is inherently doomed because of entropy. Doesn’t mean we should give up because there will be no usable energy in 100 trillion years or whatever. The sun will burn out in a billion, the earths orbit will be too hot in 100 million. Would that still not be worth living for just because it can’t be saved? Where does it go from no point to worth fighting for?
(OP I’m not arguing with you I’m pointing out the problems I have with the article. I do agree it’s gonna be bad no matter what… all the more reason to try)
Why bother? Those of us who believe it have no leverage to do anything about it. Those with the power to do something about it would rather fiddle as Rome burns.
It makes me glad I only had one kid and he's not planning to procreate.
What, so you're fine with it as long as it's other people's kids suffering in the tire fire of a future we made for them?
Not okay with any of it.
He played the lyre Xd
It isn't too-late to save civilization itself, but it definitely is too-late to save nearly-all of this kind of "civilization".
I've compiled a list of links which show the FACTUAL planet-changing, gleaned from evidence-itself.
Know that what follows is the current version of this information, as I keep finding more/better pieces of fact, to amend it with:
Notice that this isn't making-simulations-and-tweaking-them-until-they-look-like-they-match-evidence-that-we're-including,
instead, this is gleaning the natural powerlaw underlying atmospheric-CO2 -> consequent-planetary-equilibrium-temperature, itself, from the historical evidence.
This is the ONLY model that isn't pushed-on the evidence, it is only taken FROM the evidence/historical-fact.
Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798
- 280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^1 == planetary +1C == 302.5ppm CO2
- 280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^5 == planetary +5C == 411.5ppm CO2
- 280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^8 == planetary +8C == 518.5ppm CO2
- 280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^9 == planetary +9C == 560ppm CO2
We're currently in the 417..421ppm range of CO2, alone.
Factoring in the excess 1.3-1.4ppm methane, only, NOT including ANY of the other greenhouse-gasses we're producing, brings it up to 8-9C planetary heating equilibrium, using methane's 20y CO2 equivalent factor of 82.5x.
526..534.5ppm CO2-equivalent, with the methane, only, factored-in.
You can see what the historical-fact planet-temperature was, for that value, and it is nowhere near 1.5C or 2.5C, it was, when that level of atmospheric greenhouse-gas actually occurred, between +8C & +9C.
( & if it lasts longer than 20y, on average, then that factor should be higher. )
ANOTHER positive-feedback-loop.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2023/12/10/carbon-dioxide-levels-hit-14-million-year-high-what-to-know/71836796007/
Notice that the powerlaw I link to, above, and this usatoday article, state the SAME THING.
That it is HISTORICAL FACT that we are in the +5C to +9C range, not the +1.5C makebelieve that governments are devout/loyal to.
And for all who call Nature's many underlying & discoverable powerlaws "not science",
I've read that there is a powerlaw underlying:
- lightning ( frequency vs intensity, iirc )
- flooding ( ditto )
- droughts ( ditto )
- the stock market ( bubbles & crashes, iirc )
- liklihood of change in local climate
- landslides
- meteorites ( frequency vs destructive-power ) etc.
Anybody who wants to understand that powerlaws also underlie structural-strength, simply understand Dave Gerr's "Elements of Boat Strength", in which he identifies how to turn a "Scantling Number" for a particular boat ( the bigger the boat, according to specific parameters, the bigger the Sn ), into the actual-strength-of-materials-for-that-specific-part, through that-specific-part's powerlaw.
IOW, you find the Sn for a boat, and the set of powerlaws tells you exactly how much glass reinforcement-fiber, or wood, or aluminum, you need in every part of that boat, between 10' & 100' long.
Keel, bottom, lower topsides, upper topsides, deck, stringers, ring-frames, bulkheads, engine-mounts, under the mast, everything.
The powerlaws keep the proportions of strengths correct, for the difference-in-size of the boat.
Nature's filled with powerlaws.
Here are some more not-makebelieving items.
Just Have A Think, Antarctica https://youtu.be/T0qRoeEcKtY
Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
( notice that this is Actuaries.org.uk! This is financial people, not the oil industry, of course, or politicians.. but these people consider the financial risk! ) Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios – a warning for financial services https://actuaries.org.uk/emperors-new-climate-scenarios
A safe operating space for humanity https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a
In Science, according to Karl Popper, & Richard Feynman, when the evidence contradicts your models/theories, those have been falsified. The powerlaw, above, isn't falsified by this measurement, but all others, that I know-of, have been. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/antarctica-warming-much-faster-than-models-predicted-in-deeply-concerning-sign-for-sea-levels
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w ( that might possibly wipe-out much of humanity's sea-food supply )
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7
Subglacial discharge accelerates future retreat of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi9014
Youtube: Dr Gilbz ( who doesn't know about the powerlaw? not yet, anyways ) https://youtu.be/8_BoZDS1gjU
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x
Just Have A Think https://youtu.be/T0qRoeEcKtY
Cold Blob https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob You can SEE where Greenland's icewater is altering the planet's systems!
2000 cubic km more ice melt anomaly in 2010 than in 1990, 4000 cubic km more ice melt anomaly in 2020 than in 1990, The curve looks exponential.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05002-0
As the former chief scientist at NASA said, around when she was retiring, Venus's lethal runaway greenhouse condition IS a possible endstate for our planet.
No matter: same as any junkie, having to break their junk-dependency...
IF the junk-addiction is broken, it'll be a deathmatch to decide it, either-way.
Humankind's unconscious-ignorance would rather break this entire planet's human-viability than yield to evidence, and if that unconscious-ignorance wins, then our "legacy" will be simply showing the Universe that our ignorance was our rightful "king" and "lord", and that it won, and our life/viability didn't, it broke us.
Same as many addicts who die, fighting their junk-addiction, demonstrate.
Same, but on different scales, right?
It'll take most of this century for humankind's unconscious-mind to be engaged sufficiently-intensely for that survival-fight to get .. pointed, though.
_ /\ _
Thank you for all this, but I gotta ask. How long has this taken to compile so far? That's a LOT of work to put into a Lemmy comment.
(I'm impressed!)
We should build a Foundation, or maybe two...
Shh, we're not supposed to tell anyone about the second one!
Well, that sucks to know after reading all of that.
Take it with a grain of salt since the website is called "Collapse Musings"
Yeah but for a second let’s assume it’s fully accurate (I’m no expert so no idea). What would be needed to even send that message in a way that it resonates? I see so many different timelines thrown around that it may lose its impact. There should be a website with a guesstimate of when each of these scenarios starts to really kick into gear so it can be easily referenced and made fully viewable. Give people something to work backwards from regarding dates. These are such huge issues that they need to be broken into consumable format for us average folk.
None of that is necessary. Average folk, as you call us, don't need to understand the specifics. All we really need to do is stop pretending that we know better than actual experts for social and/or political reasons. Let the scientists talk about science and leave our uneducated opinions out of it. It's the laziest possible solution, which makes it perfect for application in America.
Of course, that will never happen for a variety of reasons but how sweet would it be if we could just get people to exercise the tiniest bit of self awareness regarding complicated issues?
A site that gets traffic on peddling a very specific narrative?
If I knew for certain that we’re too late, I’d not have put a kid in this world. Other than that, I would’ve continued my normal life.
Sigh...