What do you suggest? If they get forced to use something encrypted, they won't choose XMPP for sure, most probably something like whatsapp or telegram.
Being forced to use non standard protocols, and specially non federated ones is also a concern. Where I live, it's assumed that all clients/users must use whatsapp, so they don't answer your questions, you can't ask them anything, you can't share any doc with them if in need for support, it it's not through whatsapp. And everyone seems happy with it.
e2ee by itself is not enough for privacy, metadata counts, and on proprietary communication systems one doesn't even have a clue what data is mined by the company/owners or even worse if they have non disclosed mechanisms to do that or even worse to introduce back doors.
If I'd suggest something, that would be a standard and federated protocol with e2ee like xmpp + omemo. But again, I'd be naive to assume that's a possibility, if forced to do something corporations will choose what's more convenient to them not to the user, and that usually translates into proprietary abusive mechanisms.
Now about nerds using gnuPG/openPGP keys, ohh well, thunderbird chose what to me is the wrong path of not using gnuPG underneath (now by default all keys are exposed unencrypted, unless you choose to use TB's master password for example, between several other limitations, the good thing is that there's sequoia-octopus-librnp to the rescue), but that path allows them to offer a really easy way for users to interact with openPGP keys. On Android K9, now a days Thunderbird, has made it really easy as well to use gnuPG/openPGP keys when accompanied with openkeychain for example. There's nothing obscure neither truly complex about current gnuPG/openPGP usage these days. I would agree like 15 years back one really needed to learn how to maintain the gnuPG keyring, how to add and manage public keys and how to manage your own private keys. But even then there was Enigmail, which after TB chose that path turned into just a shell to help move from Enigmail to the chosen TB's librnp way, and Enigmail made it really easy to do all that gnuPG stuff. Besides thunderbird, which I wouldn't say is a nerdy thing, there were/are several other easy alternatives to use and handle gnuPG/openPGP keys. So, not really nerdy, I'd think just willing to go a bit beyond what the corporations offer you, for "your own convenience". But how many people even care? I'd say we're a sleepy society, accepting everything imposed to us, even when there's no need to, because of the hassle to look for truly privacy respectful, security respectful (from the user perspective, not just the corporations perspective), and also really important user liberties/freedom respectful, which Today's corporations with the help of some communities and the banning culture we all embraced, have been successful in convincing us that's unnecessary in favor of more "practical" alternatives, including proprietary ones...