"Do you think VR and AR have a lasting future, or is it a fleeting phenomenon?"
"Hello Marc
Virtual reality existed long before the current wave that started in 2012, and was used for simulation, visualization, design, research, and training. With the advent of low-cost, consumer-oriented VR headsets since 2016, these areas have grown, and I expect virtual reality to remain a fixture in these areas regardless of market developments in the coming years and decades.
The more interesting question you probably were aiming at is whether virtual reality will be able to establish itself in the consumer market in the long term, with so many media, gadgets and digital forms of entertainment vying for our attention.
As I wrote last week, the VR market is currently dominated by Meta. Meta Quest is the leading VR platform where most developers make their money. I believe that as long as these developers remain profitable and Meta stays in virtual reality, virtual reality will continue to exist and grow as a consumer-oriented entertainment and computing platform. But these are ifs.
Meta has made virtual reality relatively successful with aggressive investments and subsidies, distorting expectations and prices at the same time. If Meta took into account the cost of R&D and added a healthy margin, VR headsets like the Meta Quest 3S would easily cost twice as much or more. We don't know how much money Meta spends on the VR division alone, but it's safe to assume it's still a money-losing business. Until that changes and other manufacturers can turn consumer virtual reality into a profitable business, I remain cautious about making long-term predictions.
For now, those who benefit are the developers who make a good profit from VR games (and there are many, rest assured), and of course, we consumers who can get hardware and software at an incredible value ratio. However, we should be aware that Meta is essentially still investing in virtual reality and can also stop that investment with likely devastating consequences for the fledgling computing platform. What is true for virtual reality is even more true for augmented reality, which is much further away from true mass adoption and profitability.
Do I think VR and AR can become mainstream in the long term? Absolutely. But I can't say when that will be. As someone who has been a journalist in the industry for almost ten years and has followed the technological developments, I no longer think in terms of years, but decades. From that perspective, we may still be at the very beginning.
Kind regards,
Tomislav