this post was submitted on 03 Nov 2024

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232

2024 Presidential Election Megapost! (lemmy.world)

submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 10 hours ago) by jordanlund@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

470 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (4*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Maine (1*), Alaska (3) called for Trump.

Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (1*), Maine (3*) for Harris.

2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.

Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.

Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.

https://www.guampdn.com/news/guam-picks-harris-over-trump-in-non-binding-presidential-straw-poll/article_657b06b8-9b97-11ef-9896-1302c4e2ebe9.html

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

42 EC votes from Battleground States:

10+15+11+6

NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.

PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.

Which leaves 264 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

(page 9) 50 comments

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[–] negativenull@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

AP calls Vermont for Harris
Indiana for Trump
Kentucky for Trump

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (9 children)

Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!

Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Plotted on the map:

Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.

Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.

Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.

If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.

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[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 13 points 2 days ago (1 children)

My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:

"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."

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[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 29 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.

[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 11 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I've been thinking about this too.

I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.

For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.

Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.

Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.

Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.

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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 15 points 3 days ago

God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".

We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".

[–] JoMiran@lemmy.ml 58 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 36 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.

If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.

[–] JoMiran@lemmy.ml 21 points 3 days ago (6 children)

I can't because I am currently out of state. I believe the cutoff is the post mark date. Still, if it doesn't arrive tomorrow, they fucked me...and my wife.

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[–] aaron@lemm.ee 18 points 3 days ago

Everything is rigger in Texas

[–] Rapidcreek@lemmy.world 10 points 2 days ago

When you should know

"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”

Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”

[–] return2ozma@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago (1 children)

First results are in. 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump in Dixville Notch.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-day-officially-begins-harris-trump-tie-dixville/story?id=115504033

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.

[–] hal_5700X@sh.itjust.works -2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The world didn’t end in 2016, so why will it end now?

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[–] return2ozma@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago (1 children)

What a year it's been here in the politics channel. I'm still here. Exhausted.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 11 points 2 days ago (1 children)

[–] return2ozma@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago (1 children)

I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 9 points 2 days ago

Good for you! We just got the email at work "Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager."

Of course, I'm vote by mail, ballot's been in since 10/24.

[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 6 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?

They can basically call states for republicans early.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?

[–] fine_sandy_bottom@lemmy.federate.cc 9 points 2 days ago

That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.

If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.

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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 33 points 3 days ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific

Puerto Rico - Nonbinding - Harris win.
United States Virgin Islands - Not voting.
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut - Called For Harris
(D 3) Delaware - Called For Harris
(D 3) District of Columbia - Called For Harris
(D 4) Maine - Called For Harris
(D 10) Maryland - Called For Harris
(D 11) Massachusetts - Called For Harris
(D 4) New Hampshire - Called For Harris
(D 14) New Jersey - Called For Harris
(D 28) New York - Called For Harris
(D 4) Rhode Island - Called For Harris
(D 3) Vermont - Called For Harris
(D 13) Virginia - Called For Harris

(R 30) Florida - Called For Trump
(BG 16) Georgia - Called For Trump
(R 11) Indiana - Called for Trump
(R 8) Kentucky - Called for Trump
(BG 15) Michigan - Called For Trump
(BG 16) North Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 17) Ohio - Called For Trump
(BG 19) Pennsylvania - Called For Trump
(R 9) South Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 11) Tennessee - Called For Trump
(R 4) West Virginia - Called for Trump

[–] TheGiantKorean@lemmy.world 6 points 3 days ago

Appreciate you putting this together!

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