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this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2024
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I don't say this specifically about Harris, but in general, that's wrong. The moment someone actually starts campaigning and running their polling falls. That's because it's easy to offer support to someone before they're under harsh scrutiny, and you can bet Trump's team has a ton of crap to fling at her the moment she's the candidate. Most of it will be nonsense of course, but so is most of the crap he's flung at everyone else.
Don't get me wrong - I think she's by far the best choice. But expecting it to be a simple and easy transition to a Trump loss is unrealistic. This is going to be an uphill fight regardless.
I don't think that's true. I'm sure there's some initial drop when some voters start to learn about the candidate, but generally, more exposure increases someone's appeal to voters, especially when they don't know them as well.
Also, what type of poll are you talking about, head-to-head voting matchups or approval polls? Harris' approval has been about the same as Bidens in the last 4 pr 5 polls, but her disapproval is a lot lower, which indicates there are a lot of people who aren't sure about her. Unless Harris is a complete train wreck, I would be very surprised if she not only lost the approval she already had, but didn't turn any of those unsure respondents into supporters.