this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2023
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I'm not actually sure that the war is as fantastic as it might seem for defense contractors, because a lot of the hardware is older stuff that I suspect would have fallen out of inventories at some point not that far down the line. Yeah, some will be replaced by new hardware and wouldn't otherwise have been, but I bet that some won't.
GMLRS rockets are being produced new. That's going to be good news for Lockheed Martin.
But the HAWKs that found a new life as an affordable way to shoot down the the Iranian Shahed-136s are quite old, and had already been pulled out of service. I doubt that their consumption creates a new hole that will be filled by something else.
Javelins were consumed to shoot mostly Soviet-era tanks that they were originally designed to shoot. I don't know if there will ever be such a large mass of tanks assembled again. Russia may rebuild tanks to some degree after the war, but I doubt to the same level. If there isn't a large stockpile of tanks, I suppose that one doesn't need as many anti-tank weapons.
The real payoff is replacing donors (countries donating weapons to Ukraine) stock with new hardware. Ex: 500+ HIMARS purchased by Poland