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Uh, there are several recent polls that have Biden ahead, while Democrats have been over-performing polls by about 9 points in recent elections.
It's become so noticable that US News did an article about it.
538 has been reliable in the past elections. They show an almost-tied race with Trump slightly ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Wasn't 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.