this post was submitted on 20 May 2024
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I can't remember where I read it but from what I understood of the article a common outcome from central banks ramping up interest to dampen the economy is that they inevitably overshoot and make things much worse than they needed to. This can then result in such a bad down turn that in the long run doing nothing & letting inflation play itself out may have been better than intervening.
Its not yet apparent in the headline numbers so much; but you don't need to see too many more reports of major companies reducing earnings outlooks and anecdotal words of caution from friends & family before it starts to look like we're beyond technical and into an actual recession.
What's the difference between a technical recession or an actual recession. Words are supposed to have meanings and recession is a well defined term with globally accepted measurement metrics.
If we are technically in a recession it means we are in a recession.
A recession is two consecutive periods of negative growth. So usually a "technical recession" means "we meet the criteria for a recession but we're not experiencing the bad effects you'd expect (yet)"
The point is that the word recession has a meaning, the meaning is accepted worldwide, and we are in one. I would also dispute that we are not experiencing the bad effects. The polls seem to indicate the public is feeling quite a bit of pain.
Well 'we' aren't actually in a recession. Economic growth in the US has been positive the last several quarters.
Who is the "we" you are talking about?
Possibly in NZ Politics the "we" context would be obvious?