politics
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
view the rest of the comments
Are you on drugs? There's no way he wins.
I desperately wish I had your optimism and conviction.
I hope he doesn't, but...
What's your logic in thinking he has any chance at all?
Russia hasn't stopped influencing American media. GOP hasn't stopped having him as their candidate. People haven't stopped being stupid and hateful. 🤷♂️
He won't. The majority doesn't want Trump. And I know... electoral college and shit - but people has wised up. That's why Trump lost last time, and will lose again next time.
IDK, I think it's going to be very close. Quite a few people I know who disliked Trump over Biden in the last election now favor Trump. Many are in demographics you wouldn't expect. Most never vote though.
Trump is doing slightly better in the polls than Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
People's money are on Trump winning (slightly): https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-chances-beating-joe-biden-six-months-before-election-day-1897978
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-2024-united-states-presidential-election?tid=1715838452989
What makes you think that? Trump voters love him. Between the economy and Israel's actions, Biden voters are pretty damn disaffected at this point. It was close last time (he won the tipping point state by a mere 0.6%), so it doesn't take too many people staying home to result in Trump winning.
If you think that Americans are affected enough by Gaza to vote for Trump you are flat out insane. He lost once already and there's no way he's gained voters. He's accrued a multitude of criminal charges. You say " Trump voters love him. " And that's true, but there aren't many left. Media will have you believe it will be close, so that they can keep your eyes on their content.
No one is going to vote for Trump over Gaza. They're just not gonna vote. And you must live in some kind of bubble if you think Trump supporters have changed their minds over the last 4 years. Some of them have since 2016. But if they supported him in 2020, they're supporting him now. Trump doesn't need anyone new to vote for him, just for a small percentage of people who showed up for the record turn out election in 2020 to not this time around.
I think you’re going to see the biggest landslide election in our lifetimes towards Biden.
I think we're going to see record low turnouts making the remaining votes count so much more.
I think you're underestimating GenZ
Do you happen to personally know a bunch of 2020 Trump voters who are voting Biden this time around? I have no idea where you're getting this confidence from.
I know a few, but to base my argument on anecdotes is not helpful. However, check this article out: Donald Trump Suffers Huge Vote Against Him in Maryland, Nebraska
A lot of people are arguing that it will be a close race, but if 17-20% of your party is voting for a candidate that has already dropped out of the race, that can't be good for a close race. These people SHOWED UP to vote for someone else who was no longer in the race. I refuse to believe that these voters went out of their way to vote for Haley in the primaries, just to say "Ah, fuck it, I'll just vote for Trump" in the general election. Third party votes are going to hurt Trump.
Maryland is blue and doesn't matter. Similarly, Nebraska went for the republican candidate by more than a 20 point margin in 2020.
If you want to use that argument, how many people voted for "noncommitted" in the Michigan democratic primary? People don't even have another option but are going out to vote "not Biden" in an actual swing state.
I live in MI and I highly doubt that. There’s a Democratic majority in all three branches.
MI went for Trump in 2016 and broke for Biden by less than 3% in 2020. If those "noncommitted" voters didn't show up, it would be a problem for Biden. Whereas if the Haley voters didn't show up in Nebraska and Maryland, it would not be a problem for Trump.
Trump voters love him, but they're not the majority. Trump will lose again.
They don't have to be the majority. They just have to show up to vote in some swing states where Biden voters don't bother. President isn't based on who has the majority. It's based on a) turn out and b) electoral college. It doesn't matter if everyone and their mom turn out to vote democratic in California. It matters if about 20,000 people in Wisconsin who voted Biden last year decide it isn't worth the trouble this year.
Correct. And all that already happened in 2020 when Trump LOST while being a sitting president.
More people will vote against Trump, including this recently naturalized 'Merican.
With how unpopular Trump and Biden are, it's probably easier to lose as the sitting president. I don't know anyone happy with the state of the country, and that's generally blamed on the president.
And added to that, the massive disinformation campaigns from foreign powers.
What a shitshow, man.
they never were the majority. Not even amongst the GOP (to differentiate people who vote party vs president). And yet... 2016.
Yes, 2016. But THEN.... 2020.
That's the part that people conveniently leaves out.
It is almost a certainty that Trump will lose the popular vote. It is highly likely the election will be extremely close still because of the electoral college. In a country of hundreds of millions, it only takes hundreds of thousands of voters in swing states to change the outcome, regardless of the majority.