this post was submitted on 05 Jun 2023
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@lemillionsocks @anji I think that's a bit pessimistic. Reddit is nowhere near a Facebook or even a twitter, and its owners seem to have forgotten it got where it is now when digg's owner lost the curators. I doubt it'll die as quickly as some predict but I also don't think it'll survive unharmed. The truth is probably in between.
A quick google search(so take this number with a grain of salt) tells me that reddit has 52 million daily active users and 430 million monthly active users monthly active users.
Reddit is BIG. Really big. And websites just dont die or pop up the way they used to because of how theyre designed and because of how the current era of the internet has matured.
That said I wouldnt call my take pessimistic. Reddit has gotten too big and there is an appetite for many users to leave for greener pastures but there just wasnt enough momentum to breath more life and activity into the alternatives. New reddit will chug on but enough people will leave that alternatives will sprout and grow. Whether that is Lemmy or something else it's hard to say this early on, but it means that reddit alternatives will have enough users to thrive.
@lemillionsocks now look at the size of twitter and the size of the hole its new owner put in it and tell us that can't happen to reddit because of size?
True, but I agree with lemillionsock's core point. Nothing short of Reddit pulling the plug on the servers will cause 430 million monthly active users to shift in any short time-frame. However, what is likely to happen is a sharp decline in quality as the core content contributors move on, then a slow gradual decline as the remaining users go "Where'd all the content go?".