this post was submitted on 05 Mar 2024
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PPC support doesn't seem to have moved much either way. What I mean to say is that CPC gains (speaking as a percentage) would have to come either from previous Liberal/NDP voters voting for the CPC this election, or alternatively from Liberal/NDP voters not showing up in numbers as large as the previous election making Conservative support look stronger relative to the weaker showing from the other two.
That said, polling-wise the country is absolutely feeling further right than it did during the 2021 election. We're still a year and a half away from the probable next election though so it's a bit early to take that as fate.
The PPC won't make headway in the 905: they're not a pocketbook party.
I know this seems weird, but Durham isn't really socially conservative in the way that the PPC is. For one, there's a lot of immigrants there, propping up the housing market, and two, they aren't really concerned about gay or trans rights, at least as long as they don't have to pay for it.
What is scary, though, is that the CPC's social push to the right--to playing footsie with fascism--is going to radicalize places like Durham, York and Halton. The CPC is trying to tie economic conservatism to social conservatism, largely because they remember the 1990s and the Reform/PC split that kicked them out of office for a long time, and they don't want a repeat.