cross-posted from: https://lemmit.online/post/90147

This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.

The original was posted on /r/dota2 by /u/Hawkie74 on 2023-07-04 17:11:53+00:00.

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TL;DR: Sort each table by the expectation (Exp.) column and pick accordingly.

Resources

• I have made a DPC Fantasy Tracker to help you evaluate your results.
• The exponentially weighted averages across each player's 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches is available in this Google Sheet.
• This guide is purely a quantitative analysis. ~~For a qualitative analysis, I recommend checking out u/flygon727's guides.~~

Gold/Silver Card Bonuses

Please refer to this Google Sheet for what to look for for each individual player, or the table below for what to look for for each role in general.

**Table 1:* The percentage of fantasy points earned by each indicator for each role.*

| Indicator | Core | Mid | Support | |

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| Camps Stacked | 7.67 | 4.38 | 12.32 | | Creep Score | 7.82 | 6.23 | 1.72 | | Deaths | 14.71 | 12.69 | 8.79 | | First Blood | 3.27 | 0.85 | 3.29 | | GPM | 9.13 | 7.51 | 4.64 | | Kills | 12.18 | 13.05 | 6.21 | | Obs Wards | 0.62 | 3.73 | 28.01 | | Roshan Kills | 2.65 | 2.07 | 0.31 | | Runes Grabbed | 6.65 | 18.21 | 9.35 | | Stuns | 7.48 | 11.76 | 9.27 | | Teamfight | 13.15 | 13.29 | 14.09 | | Tower Kills | 14.67 | 6.23 | 2.00 |

Summer Major 2023

**Table 2:* The schedule.*

| Team 1 | Team 2 | Series | Time | |

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| Team Liquid | PSG.LGD | Bo3 | 2023-07-05 02:00 UTC | | BetBoom Team | Tundra Esports | Bo3 | 2023-07-05 05:45 UTC | | beastcoast | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 2023-07-05 09:30 UTC | | Quest Esports | Team Aster | Bo3 | 2023-07-05 13:15 UTC |

**Table 3:* The potential choices for the Core role.*

| Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Exp. | |

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| ~~JimPark~~ | ~~beastcoast~~ | ~~Bo3~~ | ~~18.91~~ | ~~6.04~~ | ~~40.26~~ | | TA2000 | Quest Esports | Bo3 | 16.78 | 7.48 | 35.99 | | Nightfall | BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 15.10 | 4.98 | 32.21 | | dyrachyo | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 14.83 | 4.75 | 31.62 | | Monet | Team Aster | Bo3 | 14.69 | 5.16 | 31.57 | | shiro | PSG.LGD | Bo3 | 14.22 | 5.51 | 30.70 | | skiter | Tundra Esports | Bo3 | 14.16 | 4.48 | 30.13 | | m1CKe | Team Liquid | Bo3 | 13.47 | 4.54 | 28.84 | | Pure~ | BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 12.92 | 4.48 | 27.65 | | Ace ♠ | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 12.65 | 4.72 | 27.24 | | 33 | Tundra Esports | Bo3 | 12.84 | 3.46 | 27.08 | | AMMAR_THE_F | Quest Esports | Bo3 | 12.43 | 4.43 | 26.39 | | zai | Team Liquid | Bo3 | 11.87 | 3.90 | 25.34 | | Xxs | Team Aster | Bo3 | 11.73 | 2.97 | 24.71 | | niu | PSG.LGD | Bo3 | 11.34 | 4.38 | 24.46 | | Sacred | beastcoast | Bo3 | 10.53 | 3.51 | 22.49 |

**Table 4:* The potential choices for the Mid role.*

| Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Exp. | |

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| Suma1L- | Team Aster | Bo3 | 16.09 | 4.53 | 34.09 | | gpk~ | BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 16.18 | 4.02 | 33.97 | | Nisha | Team Liquid | Bo3 | 15.77 | 5.32 | 33.74 | | No!ob™ | Quest Esports | Bo3 | 15.65 | 5.11 | 33.03 | | DarkMago♡ | beastcoast | Bo3 | 15.57 | 4.53 | 32.99 | | Quinn | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 15.25 | 3.73 | 32.04 | | Nine | Tundra Esports | Bo3 | 15.24 | 4.03 | 32.01 | | NothingToSay | PSG.LGD | Bo3 | 14.45 | 4.53 | 30.75 |

**Table 5:* The potential choices for the Support role.*

| Player | Team | Series | Avg. | Std. | Exp. | |

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| tOfu | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 16.20 | 6.89 | 35.24 | | ~~Saksa~~ | ~~Tundra Esports~~ | ~~Bo3~~ | ~~16.01~~ | ~~4.35~~ | ~~33.58~~ | | 皮球 | Team Aster | Bo3 | 15.97 | 3.54 | 33.43 | | Insania | Team Liquid | Bo3 | 15.00 | 3.45 | 31.41 | | Sneyking | Tundra Esports | Bo3 | 14.74 | 3.54 | 30.93 | | Seleri | Gaimin Gladiators | Bo3 | 14.11 | 5.77 | 30.59 | | TORONTOTOKYO | BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 14.12 | 3.27 | 29.55 | | planet | PSG.LGD | Bo3 | 13.96 | 3.98 | 29.55 | | stingeR | beastcoast | Bo3 | 13.99 | 3.71 | 29.49 | | kaori | Quest Esports | Bo3 | 13.77 | 5.50 | 29.40 | | Scofield | beastcoast | Bo3 | 13.72 | 4.15 | 29.12 | | WhyouSm1Le | PSG.LGD | Bo3 | 13.48 | 4.47 | 28.79 | | BoBoKa | Team Aster | Bo3 | 13.43 | 4.33 | 28.68 | | OmaR | Quest Esports | Bo3 | 13.47 | 4.77 | 28.48 | | Boxi | Team Liquid | Bo3 | 13.04 | 3.15 | 27.39 | | Save- | BetBoom Team | Bo3 | 12.73 | 3.53 | 26.88 |

Notes

• The data has been acquired from OpenDota and datdota.
• The numbers here are based on each player's 50 most recent tier 1 and 2 pro matches.
• Each match has been exponentially weighted such that the most recent matches have the biggest impact.

Glossary

• Avg.: Average.
• Std.: Standard deviation.
• Exp.: Expectation / expected value.
• Bas. Exp.: Baseline expectation, i.e. the expectation if only the confirmed series are played.
• Pot. Exp.: Potential expectation, i.e. the expectation if all potential series are played.
• (BoX): Denotes series that could potentially be played depending on the outcome of earlier series.