this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
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I'd expect the number to be in the low double digits. 10-20% on the total by now. But in the high double digits for pre-orders / early-access and starting the hype train. Say 70%. I haven't met a tabletop RPG player that hasn't played BG3. Though in the more hardcore circles I know there are those that don't play video games at all...
But I can also safely say that DoS players don't account for the success of BG3 since those games never had mainstream appeal. Brand recognition is for sure a massive factor. Also keep in mind that Baldurs Gate, particularly 2, is considered a must play to understand the evolution of western RPGs. While the PC gaming market was much smaller back then so many people will have played it, read about it or wanted to play it but couldn't get past the aged mechanics and looks since then. Its sales numbers belie its influence and reach.
Finally I'd say a good 50% or more of the total buyers bought in after it was apparent that it was going to be GOTY, so many were talking about it and every critic was singing its praise's, but it wouldn't have gotten there without that brand appeal and the super rich and deep lore which the "power users" (like many critics and early adopters) crave.
I agree with you on the percentages, funny enough, and that's why it doesn't explain the game's success to me. If D&D was responsible, there'd be far more people picking up the enhanced editions of the first two games, Neverwinter Nights, etc., and the MMO would be way more popular. If it was 5e, Solasta would have set the world on fire years earlier. I just don't see it as the largest contributing factor when I've seen plenty of examples of people surprised to learn that the game is tied to Dungeons and Dragons after they've already started playing it.
D:OS2 sold several million copies btw. Maybe that doesn't quite count as mainstream, but it was already a healthy increase from what the first game sold, so they were trending up already.