this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2024
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Ukraine
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The problem is that defence is a massive advantage in war in general and thanks to drones in this war especially. Basically as long as Russia attacks, they are going to have massive losses. Due to the US not sending aid, it looks like Ukraine is going to remain unable to launch a large scale offensive. Russia has not been able to really break through either. So the best case for Ukraine is that Russia attacks, but fails and looses as many soldiers and material as possible until Ukraine might be able to break thorugh or Russia is giving up. If Ukraine holds out somewhat well, they are able to destroy a large part of the old Soviet stockpile. If the Democrats win the next US election, then Russia would be in a worse spot militarily and Ukraine gets the support to attack again.
So high losses are still good for Ukraine, if Russia stops attacking, they might built up enough strength to really break thorugh later.
Fair enough then. Hopefully the latest spending bill efforts bear fruit soon.