this post was submitted on 07 Feb 2024
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Oh God fucking damnit, I had a long ass response that my browser just deleted before I could post it. I'll give you the TLDR instead:
US intelligence was spot on about the invasion. I think they may have incorrectly specified a date once, but beyond that, they were absolutely correct that Putin was going to invade. Which of course Putin vehemently denied while building up troops.
Russia was expected even by the West to quickly take Kiev with superior military power. We realized that it was a façade though, and their military was poorly trained and poorly equipped. Tons of their soldiers died, to the point that Putin had to start conscription.
Putin was once a feared mastermind and expert tactician. His blunder in Ukraine gave credence to the reports that he was suffering a health decline. Photographs of him at an undisclosed location sitting far away from his administration officials suggested paranoia too.
Ukraine is a battle, Russia has already lost the war. Their military is a laughingstock, and their threats are seen as meaningless bluster. They've been cut off economically from a lot of the world, and they're seen as just as vile as Israel in terms of war crimes. Unless there's a regime change, the West will loathe them for likely a century to come. Putin's actions have also reenergized NATO, and some new countries have asked to join NATO as a direct response. They have brain drain from people fleeing conscription. They might already be in demographic collapse from how many working age people have died. There was even a coup attempt by the Wagner Group that faced no resistance in some areas as they advanced.
Ukraine can still win the war with Western assistance, and they want to keep fighting. As long as they want to fight against imperialist oppressors, I say we help them. Putin has fucked around for too long, and it's time for the Ukrainian people to take back their whole country. When you consider what was originally expected of this war to where this war is now, Ukraine is doing fucking amazing.
It's good that some ppl like u focus on facts, although there was few new for me.
Everybody agrees ukrainians have defended their homeland bravely. The problem is after supplies given we all expected a far shorter conflict and we failed ukrainians in that regard.
Conscription was something unexpected too. When you call this a Putin blunder you completely dismiss events before the invasion. Civil war was real since 2014. Russia may have lost thousands of soldiers, but it has also succesfully evacuated thousands of russian speaking ukrainian civilians from Donbass and other bloody civil war areas.
Western propaganda makes you believe the solution to the whole conflict be as simple as to take one man named Putin down. What a fairy tale idea. He is only the weapon of the big russian entities that have interests here and there. They'd just replace him with a worse one.
a Ukrainian "civil war" is a Kremlin lie. the Donbas "separatists" were always practically all Russian soldiers and Russian materiel.
Call it as you wish, but the outcome for the ukrainian civilians in that area was the same. Thousands of deaths since 2014.
Russia did supply military, but ukrainian army conducted bombardments too. When you bombard own soil killing civilians en mass, I guess it's a pretty strong argument to call it a civil war. Ofc everything is relative.