this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2024
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Israel and Palestine Politics Discussion

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'Quite evident': Young Americans support genocide charges against Israel (www.trtworld.com)
submitted 9 months ago by CaractacusPotts@lemmy.ca to c/israel_palestine_pol@lemmy.world
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[–] CaractacusPotts@lemmy.ca 10 points 9 months ago (1 children)

According to the Economist/YouGov poll, roughly equal numbers of adults believe Israel’s military campaign against Palestinians, which is estimated to have killed more than 25,000 people since 7 October, amounts to genocide: 35% say it is, 36% say it isn’t, with 29% undecided.

Among younger Americans, and along political lines, divisions are more prominent. Almost half of those surveyed aged 18-29, 49%, say Israel is committing genocide, with 24% disagreeing and 27% uncertain

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/24/americans-believe-israel-committing-genocide-poll

[–] IdiosyncraticIdiot@sh.itjust.works -2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I would still argue ~250 18-29 yo polled is not a great sample size for a population of ~60 million

[–] cmeu@lemmy.world 2 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Is that argument based on mastery of statistics, or intuition? I don't claim the former for myself, but I distrust the latter in others.

This calculator thingy seems to think it's pretty representative.. https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=2&cl2=95&ss2=250&pc2=60&ps2=60000000&x=Calculate#findci

[–] IdiosyncraticIdiot@sh.itjust.works 3 points 9 months ago

I wouldn't call myself a master at stats, but maybe learned since I use stats daily as a data engineer. This is called the Small Sample Fallacy and suffers self selection bias (as in, samples are choosing on their own to take the survey).

People who commit the small sample fallacy can be said to assume that a small random sample should be as reliable as, and as regular as, a large random sample, but not too regular.

You put in the wrong numbers, the margin of error is lower, but that's a moot point because it falls into fallacy.

These are they same fallacies that lead to "every" 2016 election poll saying Hillary was going to win... We all know how that went.