Ukraine

There's quite a few problems with the analysis being done by "Sarcastosaurus" and I've a mind to go at him about them. However a fundamental problem is his assumption that the F-16 is headed to Ukraine to engage in dogfights with Russian Fighters. It's not.

The F-16 is headed to Ukraine to be used as a missile truck, specifically a NATO missile truck. This is important because NATO countries can supply parts and armaments for the airframes, something they cannot do with Ukraine's current selection of former USSR airframes. Additionally the NATO armaments are integrated with the platform and are able to use their full capability.

A good example of this is the AGM-88 HARM. Ukraine is currently using them but because they're being jury rigged onto MiGs instead of a NATO aircraft they only have access to the "Pre Briefed" mode, which drastically curtails their capability. On a NATO plane the TOO and SP modes are unlocked which will be an absolute game changer for dealing with ground based radar threats.

If / when those are dealt with then the F-16 can stop flying SEAD missions and start putting warheads on foreheads by dropping JDAMs, which will have an immediate impact on the ground war. Those F-16s will likely be flying inside the envelope of Ukraine's own air defense systems and absolutely NONE of Russia's planes are safe from those. Add on some CAP flights by Ukraine's remaining MiGs and those F-16s will be flying in relative safety and comfort.

Only time will tell how the Ukrainian's choose to use their F-16s and how well they perform in the role(s) they are tasked with but the presumption that they're going to be used for Dog Fighting is unfounded.