this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2023
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You have to remember, most apps and sites all boomed around (roughly) the same time.
I think it's a mixture of two things I saw other commenters say: investors demanding constant growth (I'm not one of those rabid anti-capitalists, but this cutthroat unforgiving attitude of boards and investors is NOT sustainable), and the other factor is these sites/apps focused on finding their niche and building an audience/userbase first and worried about monetizing second.
Since websites and apps all had the same start point just a couple of decades ago (for the oldest sites), it's not a huge surprise they're all running into the same dilemmas around roughly the same 5 year time span.
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd wager we'll see a few major companies rise up, build a huge audience, screw up the monetization, and drive everyone scattering to smaller sites/apps. Then in a few years one of those smaller apps has a good run, rises to the top, pulls all the users that were previously scattered, and then botches their own model eventually, scattering the users again. Rinse and repeat. Just my thoughts though
Will it actually be cyclical? Twitter and Reddit tearing up their user base has caused the Fediverse to grow. I find it unlikely that - if Twitter and Reddit continue to go the way of Facebook, with the majority of the core user base leaving as enshitification worsens - they go somewhere other than Mastodon or Lemmy.
People can shout about how lemmy/Mastodon aren't user friendly - but with their growth they are massively improving and will continue to do so.
Something I read someone else here on Lemmy, but which is a good point, is the fact that there aren't that many investors around anymore. Boomers are slowly dying out and Millenials don't have that much money (Gen Y even less so). All of those social media apps were/are running at a loss for a long time before eventually becoming (barely) profitable, needing a steady stream of investors chasing the potential value of the app to stay afloat.
Saudi Arabia are currently a significant portion of venture capital. They have a ton of money coming from a dying source (oil) so they need to diversify.