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Yeah, I always wondered how the fuck you don't crash into a building, forest or get swept out to sea. I guess you just pick really still wind days.
From what I've read the wind can point different directions at different altitudes, so you can navigate a little bit by changing your altitude, depending on the wind conditions.
I was told by someone who worked at a company that does balloon flights that winds are somewhat predictable, so they launch balloons in a way that gives them a decent margin of error to account for fluctuations in the wind.
If it turns out that you have to land in the middle of the highway or some dangerous location like that, there is enough time to anticipate that and get in touch with the authorities to have that area blocked off.
Used to crew for a hot air balloon company, and that's correct. Also, we never flew when the wind was over 10 knots, both at ground and altitude.
You also don't want the wind to be too still, because that's just an elevator ride and you don't get to see anything. Makes it easy on the crew, though.
I think the main way is by not launching upwind of buildings, forests, or the ocean. And don't launch when a weather system is coming in that would change wind patterns. Wind is usually fairly predictable.