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Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they're using to gather data I guess. Whether it's the cold calling or what, I don't know, but it clearly isn't effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it's even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don't need to be right, you just have to feel like you're right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn't help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that's not helping his case, although they're short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. 'Oh you're overreacting'. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won't get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you're anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn't happen.
No I don't think that's accurate. If McCain or Romney had won I never had a fear that our democracy would have eroded. I certainly wouldn't have agreed with all of their policy choices but both men I think are old guard politicians and would have largely done the job with an undercurrent of honor that just doesn't exist with trump. I never would have had any fear that if they lost the next election they wouldn't peacefully turn over power.
With trump all of that has changed. The only reason his coup didn't work is because most everyone involved was dense as fuck and couldn't come up with a cohesive strategy to get it done. Give him another chance and 4 years to prepare and he will find success.
Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he's the candidate we've got, and in our broken political system that's as good as it's going to get. We can talk about 3rd parties and changing the system but none of that is happening before 24.
The polls are right about one thing. Trump definitely could win again. That should be very alarming to any rational American.
2020: "Elect Biden and once he's POTUS then we can push him left!" ... They never pushed him left.
So vote for the white nationalist Fascist instead?? Yeah that's what the left should do.
How about instead you get this drowning US democracy onto the safety of the beach then you can start resuscitating it.
Precisely. It was a steaming crock of shit then, and has no credibility as a message now.
The game is rigged, and if you lose people die. Potentially heaps of them.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don't work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant "fudge factor" to make it look random. It's not clear how there models really work and there's no way to audit them.