forecasting

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

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Prediction: human hibernation will reduce aircraft emissions (self.forecasting)

submitted 11 months ago by activistPnk to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/4750716

Human hibernation has made some strides recently. I think a year or so ago a Wired mag article said the only significant unsolved problem is shivering. They have a cocktail of drugs that makes hibernation possible apart from the fact that people shiver at low temps.

If they solve this, I will gladly prefer to be shipped as cargo on a sail boat or airship so long as someone tends to a heart monitor to ensure a few heartbeats per min or whatever is still happening. No more Gestappo airport security, stresses of delayed flights, screaming babies, people eating Camembert cheese within 5 meters of you. You age at like ⅓ the rate in hibernation (or something like that). I’d gladly trade a week of reduced useful lifetime in exchange for a later death (experiencing more of the future than otherwise possible). The idea of being able to easily flip the middle finger to Boeing would also be a nice perk. (#boycottBoeing)

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[–] fallingcats@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 11 months ago (1 children)

This doesn't make sense for anybody with high fixed costs like rent

[–] activistPnk 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

I’m not sure how your comment makes sense. Renters must make their rent payment regardless of where they are. Do you mean the long travel time reduces their income? I could see that being a deterrent for a segment of people traveling round-trip who can afford to travel can’t afford to be away from work for long. That has nothing to do with rent but rather a problem of low fixed income. People in that boat would need fast travel assuming they can afford the ticket. When hibernation travel is common the fast travel methods will become more of a luxury and will be priced as such.

[–] fallingcats@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Since travel time counts towards time not at home - yes - that means you're wasting rent as well as time off. Half a months worth, for the proposed 1 week per direction being shipped over the Atlantic. Thanks like half of the whole vacation in most cases

[–] activistPnk 1 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

That segment of people will have to decide whether to cut their trip short or to save more to support the trip. The budget option will be the hibernation travel. In a natural market the hibernation travel will have to undercut airfare. I couldn’t predict whether the spread would be more than ~40 hrs×min.wage. OTOH, it may not simply be a natural market at that point since govs will likely start artificially penalizing high-emissions travel. An optimist would predict that people will be working less and get paid more by then. IMO the working less part of that is likely. I think the Henry Ford 40 hr work week will be abandoned in the developed world in the next couple decades.