this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2023
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The USSR was never in a serious position to launch an invasion of Japan, and Japan was not ready to surrender for anything short of complete and total defeat. Even after the first nuclear bomb was dropped, there was serious discussion of continuing the war; after the second bomb, there was a failed coup attempt against the Emperor to prevent him from surrendering.
The USSR's intervention was mutually agreed upon by Allied (and actually requested by the Western Allies) forces and happened after the first bombing.
I don't know if I agree that the USSR was not in a serious position to invade Japan. For one, after they declared war on Japan as promised in the Yalta/Tehran Conferences, they were able to invade Manchuria, Sakhalin, and the Kuril Islands. I'm aware that the Kurils are tiny tiny islands compared to Hokkaido and Honshu, and they were locations Japan was probably not defending vehemently. So maybe the USSR wasn't prepared for the scale of a naval mainland invasion, but given the Japanese losses in Manchuria, it certainly seems they at least had the manpower in the region. It's not like the Red Army had to march all the way from Berlin to Vladivostok.
This also seems to be a point of discussion among historians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Japanese_War#Impact_on_the_Japanese_decision_to_surrender
Btw, the story about how the surrender broadcast recording was saved from the coup, I always thought that was a fascinating story.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirohito_surrender_broadcast
Speaking purely from the standpoint of a mainland invasion, which is what the US was trying to avoid, and the USSR could not have undertaken, in order to force a Japanese surrender. They were in a serious position to invade Manchuria (and did), but that's not Japan so much as the Chinese puppet state of Japan.
A friend of mine told me about a very thorough video talking about Japan's surrender and the (un)necessity of the atomic bombs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCRTgtpC-Go