this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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Facts Section:
The real question is how does that compare to the rest of the games industry and what counts as a "fail".
So according to the article: a "failure" is when a game becomes "inactive." That seems like a poor standard for failing since every game will eventually be marked as a failure no matter how successful it once was. It could bring in millions of dollars but only 56 people played Deus Ex 1 today. Is that enough to count it as "inactive"? They don't define inactive so it's hard to really say if it's absolute zero or near zero and for how long?
This also is only counting the GameFi platform and only.
So 75% of web3 mobile games fail to stay active for over 5 years. Let's see how this checks with the rest of the industry.
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/report-83-of-mobile-games-fail-in-the-three-years-after-launch
83% of mobile games fail in 3 years and 43% of them fail to make it to release.
Okay but what about profitability. That's what really matters!
https://www.shacknews.com/article/56053/analyst-only-4-of-games
4% of games are deemed profitable.
Opinion:
I wouldn't play Web3 games, I don't really see a future for web3. I also don't really see a future for VR/AR. I could be wrong about these things but they right now all seem like gimmicks that haven't caught on. I also think that LLM AI isn't as mind blowingly useful as everyone might think. I think it's a neat tool and nothing more. It's not going to revolutionize AI. That will come from other advancements, potentially on top of LLM but more likely in parallel.
That all said, these stats don't seem to mark the death of web3. These stats actually seem slightly better than the rest of the industry. It's likely because they are on a rise with VC and other funding.
There's no future for these because the big players that could pull it off have no reason to do so. Game publishers love FOMO and thus hate trading, and platform owners would probably look at Valve's success with the Steam Marketplace instead of the continued failure of crypto.
This one doesn't have that same sort of constraint where it fundamentally doesn't make sense.
VR has a future as an entertainment system for sure. Probably not as widespread as simply grabbing a PS5 and playing Madden, but there's a ton of potential especially as older hardware drops in price and game libraries continue to expand. Porn is gonna keep this concept alive forever either way.
As for AR, its future is utility. Seeing map directions on the road itself, interactive models during meetings, having real life Shadowplay built into your glasses since they're camera peripherals, etc. Or porn but in your room with your own parts idk.