Ukraine

Showing weakness usually doesn't end well for authoritarian leaders and at the same time they aren't the ones currently suffering the consequences. In some regards it might even have expanded the powers they have internally (at least in the short term).

So in some twisted way there is some logic from their point of view. The fault really lies in starting this whole thing under the assumption it would be an easy win, while not having a way to back out again, while saving face.