this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2024
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Ukraine
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On a potentially positive note, it seems that the Russians are running low on artillery systems (loss of ~25/day on a high casualty day compared to ~70/day months ago).
I believe euromaiden press estimates they have 21% of their total stock pile left and they field ~20% at a time. This would mean they have essentially no reserves left and field usage is now limited by production rates and refurbishment of equipment in bad shape.
I suspect Putin hopes that Ukraine will be more willing to compromise, if he keeps the pressure high, and Zelenskyy has no hope of aid from USA when Trump takes over.
But I think Zelenskyy knows or suspects that Russia is just as hard pressed internally as Ukraine is now, if not more.
But Iran may slow down sending more material to Russia, because now Israel is much more likely to attack them, because Trump will very likely give the green light when he becomes president.