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Trump will give Israel ‘blank check’ which may mean all-out war with Iran, says ex-CIA chief
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2024
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I don't think you understand the capabilities difference - Israel has the nuclear option if they are threatened existentially. But lets take that off the table a moment.
Iran's capabilities are their missiles, manufacturing capabilities. Their Refineries, and strategic energy reserves are in known locations and are the lynch pin of Iran's economy. And finally, the Nuclear R&D facilities are in known places. All of those are the targets - and Israel absolutely has the capacity to take it out- just not the strong justification.
If Iran continues striking Israel, Israel is going to feel the pressure to decapitate Iran as a threat to them.
The fall out of this is more interesting:
China loses access to Iranian Oil for the short to mid term - it will take time to restore capabilities.
Russia loses access to Iranian missiles - without production capabilities, and depleted stocks, Iran will not be able to sell missiles to Russia let alone drones.
Iran's economy will be in shambles - that could very well open the door to coup or revolt.
Iran would unload as many missiles as it possibly could - which could be devastating. But that would come down to just how many interceptor missiles Israel would have available, along with other air defence options.
If you want a "Why would trump support this" - there you have it. It reaffirms US obligation to support it's allies, It puts economic pressure on china, and denies Russia access to weapons - which should help push them to the negotiating table.
In reality, I would more expect Iran to back off. Then again - With Israel obliterating Iran proxies, Iran may feel the pressure to complete a nuclear deterrent and Israel may end up wanting to decapitate Iran as a threat BEFORE they gain that capability... what a bloody mess.
I dont dissagree. But for the rest of yall here, the point stands.
Foreign policy is nuanced, multi layered, and gives no shits about your morality. Any of you that boil down the issue to palistine vs israel or race or religion, have no idea whats going on. Two state solutions are just to placate you while wholesale slaughter happens.
This is about power and maintaining it. Always has been. And american, or western dominance in the region as a way to maintain what little peace exists, and not let our adversaries seize that control, is the end sum game.
Im not saying its right. But superpowers and governments do not care about your moral hangups. A hundred thousand dead "someone else" vs a major strategic location means nothing. Appalling, sure, but there is a brutal logic to it.
That's all under the assumption that Iran didn't secretly develop nukes, or bought them from Russia or North Korea and just keeps it completely hidden to turn the tides at the last possible second.
Trump wont go against Putin lol