this post was submitted on 10 Jun 2023
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I honestly don't think the fediverse will become nearly as popular as many seem to.think. It's still complicated to use/understand for many non-tech enthusiasts, and in the case of Reddit, while people are angry, I doubt most of their users are going anywhere any time soon. Some will leave, but it's not going to be a small number.
We keep going on about how Reddit relies on it's "creators", without whom they'll die. Frankly, a lot of the highest rated content is just repost of old videos or tiktok videos. A lot of that stuff isn't original, and the deep conversations are, in my opinion, few and far between. Sure there are some communities whi h have this, but they're not exactly over represented.
@alehel @noodlejetski I'll add that when Twitter first hit the fan there was a large influx of Mastodon users, but it quickly fell off. Perhaps there are more tech-savvy Reddit users who will dive into the Fediverse than did with Twitter/Mastodon, but for your average user we're not approachable enough yet to overcome the inertia of familiarity.
Even if it quickly fell off, I think approximately 70-80% of current Mastodon users came from Twitter, and a big reason for people leaving (after poor onboarding experience) was the small size of the Fediverse. There just weren't enough people in the Fediverse for the network effect to take hold. With each influx of users I expect to see a slightly higher proportion to stay, although I don't see this influx (from Reddit) as being particularly large in the first place.