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This uhh. This is just nonsense right? I'm not aware of Ukraine having broken any of the defensive first lines let alone past any of the dragon's teeth lines. There's 2 more lines beyond those. Getting past these lines is necessary before getting even 10%, let alone 50%.
Or are they talking about something that happened much earlier? That's really confusing too because anyone that's been watching the map trackers knows nothing close to 50% ever happened. Certainly some pushback several months ago but hardly 50% ????
Kiyv, Kherson, & Kharkiv.
Aight so like 15-20% and he's referring to something that happened ages ago then. I thought it was kinda weird, I guess they're not happy about how the current counteroffensive is going either and this kind of statement helps generate headlines that stop people's support dropping whether it's actually true or not.
I needed to ask because I wasn't really sure if I'd just missed something incredibly major somehow.
I mean looking at this video - which is 4 months old now, too - I am eyeballing it but kinda seems like yeah, it could be 40%+? So now it's 50% maybe, sure.
Huh I guess you can get kinda close to 40% ? I suppose most of us aren't including the north east withdrawal because it's largely seen as a distraction and not really a "front" that actually happened, and Kyiv feels like it happened 10 years ago now. It makes sense that Blinken would include the stuff most people wouldn't think of as having been Ukraine "taking it back" because the bigger number looks good in media.
Lmfao " Kyiv was a feint" do you really believe that? Dude they lost so many VDV the BBC did a piece on it. To say it was just a distraction is bullshit Russian propaganda. They attacked, failed, then retreated and reinforced the areas they were more successful.
Nah I'm not talking about Kyiv. The north east was hardly any troops, no supply, just empty roads that were taken with no resistance. And then they withdrew with no resistance too after the Kyiv attack failed. My point being that it's hardly worth considering it as having been "taken" in the first place, and most don't. The Kyiv part itself is fair to bring up, just easy to forget given how long ago it was.
Anyway people should be more concerned about the new russian offensive getting hyped up. A lot of rumours stirring around that look similar to the rumours before Bahkmut right now.
No resistance? They sieged Chernihiv from February 25-March 31.
You count Bakhmut as a Russian victory? Nobody won Bakhmut, Russian expended a massive ammout of manpower and resources for nothing. The front didn't change in any meaningful way, hell the fact they are struggled so much to reclaim a town they captured in 2014 should tell you how bad things are for Russia. Seriously dude they drafted 300,000 and still the only way they made progress was by throwing prisoners at it.
Also spoiler alert they have been on the offensive this entire time. The only competent people have been removed from power. The one to order defensive lines made and mines laid backed Pringlez. Pringlez is also gone now so yeah I don't really see this offensive playing out any way.
I didn't say anything about victories. I couldn't give a shit about who is winning or losing I would prefer the fighting to stop immediately it's all a waste of lives and the destruction of families.
I don't think we should be counting Pringlez as gone, Wagner are training Belarus troops I'm not convinced that he isn't involved in that given that he moved to Belarus.~
What I'm talking about is the 100k troops and 1k tanks that have been built up for the new Russian push. We might see a big arrow offensive again instead of this attrition stuff that has been going on. It's all speculation obviously but the telegrams feel a lot like they did before Bahkmut when the rumours were circling that it was going to be next, this makes me think that this is actually going to happen fairly soon. But hey I've been wrong before so ehhh
Bit annoying that just having any kind of conversation here gets you downvoted for apparently no reason at all. Weird userbase in this comm, doesn't happen anywhere else on lemmy.
I downvoted you because you're saying false/insane things. That's the point of downvotes.
What false things have I said? The troop build up they've been doing has been well known for a long time now, like literally months they've been doing this buildup for. Many are talking about it, both pro-russian and pro-ukrainian.
https://youtu.be/38Mcg_hrQLk
https://youtu.be/PXhg9DfTIVg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTTxcfKAmqA
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/56341
https://t.me/rybar/50008
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17195
It's like some of you aren't actually paying any attention to anything other than ABC/Reuters/CNN. These outlets are useless for speculation content you have to go elsewhere for it.
There is a 0% chance Russia has "thousands of functioning tanks" that mysteriously weren't deemed necessary during their worldwide embarrassment of logistics last year.
I didn't say thousands. I said a thousand. It's actually estimated closer to 900 in this buildup along with the 100k troops but that's neither here nor there really. Maybe if you actually bothered to read or watch anything I send you then you would know this? The issue here is that you're unwilling to take onboard any information unless it comes from your little circle of neoliberal media sources, which are always late, and always doing an incredibly repetitive narrative that really doesn't serve to learn or understand much at all. This leaves you completely unaware of what is actually happening.
It's less that I don't believe you (or can't click links) and more that I doubt, severely, Russia's ability to employ said armor to any degree of effectiveness.
Another
https://youtu.be/OAoYZ850cg0
Fair warning Mercouris is a tory fuckhead. However I suspect that will appeal to a neoliberal like yourself. He's also a london barrister working in constitutional law and human rights.
I'm much more of a libdem than a Tory , and wavering battle lines do not an offensive make. Can't hold territory if you can't resupply.
Biden is to the right of the tories lmao.
With that said, you do seem like a Nick Clegg kinda person. He runs meta as Zuckerberg's equal these days lmao. Lib dems.
Yeah that's fair. But what's happening is the biggest movement we've seen in months, and the numbers flying around (build has been since february) are fine. Like I've said elsewhere though I also think it's possible this offensive will get bogged down in cluster bombs. We shall see.
At least we're not in the "you're talking bullshit" headspace now. You at least understand I'm not just making shit up.
I've never thought you were making shit up (except "Biden is right of Tories" lmao). I said your conclusions were wrong.
He's a bigger warmonger, a bigger strikebreaker, doesn't want universal free at point of service healthcare, starts more wars, and keeps more children in cages. Although with our new prison boat they're certainly trying to catch up.
I'm fairly confident Biden would be fine if I was shot for climbing on a weapons factory roof and smashing the building up, that or guantanamo'd. We do it on the regular and far from getting shot we don't even get prosecuted. Been doing it to Elbit factories that make weapons for Israel for over a year and a half now without a single prosecution.
I think a fairly good litmus test for "who is further right" is to check which one of them would disappear me to a blacksite for being an effective leftist, and that isn't the tories I'm afraid mate. America has marched incredibly far right. It has no left, not electorally anyway, local wins excluded.
Lmao well at least you admitted you're crazy so we can stop talking
Is it crazy if we've permanently shut down 3 factories and an office? It's been working and will continue until every single Israeli weapons factory in Britain is gone.
Smashing shit gets the goods mate.
The effectiveness of the armour entirely depends on how many Javelins Ukraine have left in my opinion. These were causing the bulk of Russian losses. The way this has been dragged on and delayed and delayed and delayed could imply that the Russians have been aiming to deplete the supplies and munitions that the Ukrainians have in order to make an offensive viable. The west doesn't really have much left of this shit to give them either without taking it literally out of the hands of active units. Western manufacturing is not keeping up with the rate at which things are getting used.
I'm not ruling out that their offensive will go as badly as the Ukrainian one. It really depends on what they have left, how many weapons supply dumps the Russians have been managing to destroy with those regular missile attacks, etc etc.
No, it's mines and artillery.
Dude this started out with Ukrainians making molotovs. Now they are getting shipments of Bradleys and multiple types of tanks. The west is capable of sustaining Ukraines ammo needs for a while. The US has already went from producing 14k shells a month to 24 with the goal of 85k a month by 2028. That's just the US, now factor in all the European countries doing the same.
You need to stop listening to whatever sources you are reading.
Will you remove your downvote now that Kupyansk is almost taken by the Russians?
Nah
Ok champ
This is since the invasion began, counting from Russia's deepest gains into Ukrainian territory. So, this is everything that Ukraine has managed to do against the world's second largest military. While currently there haven't been any spectacular gains, the Ukraine has been steadily grinding the land back from the invaders and combined the amount now adds up to 50% retaken.
Meaning the job is half done, but also half finished.
This boundless optimism is so strange. Using something that was so long ago now for propaganda in the present is super misleading. Until we see a breakthrough of the defensive lines, literally just 1 layer of a line would be a good start let alone all 3 layers I can't really agree with anyone that thinks much is going to happen from the ukrainian side. If/when that does happen I'd be happy to reassess.
Not really. It's an overall view of the progress to date. The liberation of Ukrainian territory is an continuous and ongoing process and it's half done. The only super misleading part has been thinking that Russia would give up on its latest bout of imperialism so quickly. America is going to keep supplying Ukraine with weapons because by doing so they are absolutely wrecking their #1 enemy on the cheap.
Russia is fucked. Even if they beat Ukraine their invasion has caused NATO to expand its direct contact with Russia from over 1000km. Russian threw away decades of goodwill and cause economic cooperation with the West to completely die out. Russia was on the verge of being Europe's OPEC and all of that potential to make their nation better has been utterly lost.
No one is going to trust Russia for at least another full generation.
Mate I don't know why you've said half this shit. I talked about none of that. It's like you're talking at me rather than with me. US weapons? Who said anything about america? It's like you're reading off a script instead of actually responding to what I've said. I'm glad that you're really excited to see loads of people die but like, actually talk to me instead of soapboxing.
Maybe. It's a bizarre response that hardly has anything to do with what I was saying, I just assumed it was someone that really wanted to say all these things that we've heard from neoliberals and the media like a billion times already. Like, ok?
Lol "so long ago". Most of it wasn't even a year ago dude, and the article is pretty clear about the timeline being discussed.
Yes it was? The withdrawal from the north was march30-april6.
I'm not a dude.
The job is not at all half finished. There is a massive difference between taking back territory Russia strategically chose to withdraw from following their failure to advance further and taking back territory they have claimed as an integral part of their nation and will fight tooth and nail to defend.