Ukraine

I don't expect a popular revolution, more like a series of coups. Right now it doesn't happen, because Putin is still preferable to instability for the Russian elites. Once that's no longer true, I'd think any kleptocrat would be in danger.

In a way, that's actually more negative than what you said. I suppose he could just give up on the war, too, but Kamil Galeev says that's politically impossible and he's actually Russian, while I'm just a vaguely international Westerner.