this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2024
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When 2 satellites collide, the pieces don't all stay on the same altitude. Even though none of them will be in a stable orbit, all it takes is for one piece to smack into a satellite that's a bit higher up before it de-orbits, and boom, now you've got a debris field that won't de-orbit.
Pieces don’t gain kinetic energy in a collision. Even if they collide and get sent off in an “upwards” direction, it’s not up very far relative to the orbit, and that’s just a less circular orbit at lower speed that will burn up even faster
For you scenario to work, there would have to be a chain reaction
Each chance is remote enough, and ricocheting pieces only go so far, and any higher satellites they could reach are also low orbit, that I can’t imagine how remote the chances of this happening are
Kessler syndrome is a real worry, but not in this low orbit